Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Sep 14 0537 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 September 2015
Solar activity was very low with the exception of 11 September when Region 2414 (S10, L=321, class/area Dai/190 on 13 Sep) produced an isolated C1/Sf flare at 11/2137 UTC. A large filament structure was observed lifting off the NW quadrant in SDO/AIA 171 imagery beginning at 07/0740 UTC. Subsequent analysis indicated a glancing blow on 11 September. By 13 September, old Region 2403 (S15, L=192), which was responsible for multiple M-class flares last rotation, returned to the visible disk as new Region 2418 (S15, L=203, class/area Hsx/120 on 13 Sep). The region appears to have simplified, however due to limb proximity, there might be more associated spots yet to become visible. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at mostly high levels with moderate levels observed on 08 September. The largest flux value for the period was 11,910 pfu observed at 13/1425 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to severe storm (G3-Strong) levels during the period. The period began under the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) coupledwith a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was the result of a filament eruption on 04 September. Solar wind speed increased to over 600 km/s just after 07/1400 UTC followed by an increase in total field to 20 nT by 08/0700 UTC. The Bz component rotated southward by 08/2323 UTC to a maximum of -9 nT on 09 September. The geomagnetic field responded with periods of major storm levels (G2-Moderate)from 07-09 September. By 10 September, total field had decreased to 5 nT with solar wind speeds around 410 km/s. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on 10 September. By early on 11 September, total field increased again to 16 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -16 nT at 11/0730 UTC. Solar wind speed increased to near 660 km/s by 11/1140 UTC as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective, possibly in combination with the glancing blow from the 07 September CME. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to severe storm levels (G3-Strong) on 11 September. Throughout the rest of the period, solar wind parameters slowly diminished to near nominal levels. Quiet to active levels were observed on 12 September with quiet to unsettled levels on 13 September.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 September - 10 October 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares from 14-26 September as Regions 2414 and 2418 rotate across the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels expected on 14-18, 21-22, 26-27 September and from 02-06, 09-10 October due to influence from multiple recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 14-16, 20, 24-25 September, and from 30 September through 10 October with minor storm (G1-Minor) periods likely on 15 September, 01 October, 05-06 October, 08 October, and major storm periods possible on 04 October due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 14 0538 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-09-14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Sep 14 105 12 4
2015 Sep 15 105 20 5
2015 Sep 16 100 12 4
2015 Sep 17 95 8 3
2015 Sep 18 90 8 3
2015 Sep 19 90 8 3
2015 Sep 20 90 12 4
2015 Sep 21 90 8 3
2015 Sep 22 90 5 2
2015 Sep 23 90 5 2
2015 Sep 24 90 15 4
2015 Sep 25 90 10 3
2015 Sep 26 90 5 2
2015 Sep 27 85 5 2
2015 Sep 28 80 5 2
2015 Sep 29 85 5 2
2015 Sep 30 90 8 3
2015 Oct 01 95 18 5
2015 Oct 02 90 12 4
2015 Oct 03 85 12 4
2015 Oct 04 85 25 6
2015 Oct 05 85 20 5
2015 Oct 06 85 18 5
2015 Oct 07 90 12 4
2015 Oct 08 95 18 5
2015 Oct 09 100 15 4
2015 Oct 10 100 10 3
(NOAA)