Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Sep 21 0538 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 September 2015
Solar activity was low from 14-16 Sep. Activity increased to moderate levels on 17 Sep when Region 2415 (S19, L=233, class/area Eac/240 on 19 Sep) produced an M1/Sf flare at 17/0940 UTC. A long duration C2/Sf flare observed at 18/0631 UTC was accompanied by Type II (850 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a coronal mass ejection (CME). Low levels were observed on 18-19 Sep but returned to moderate levels on 20 Sep. Region 2420 (N09, L=108, class/area Ekc/270 on 20 Sep) produced an M1 at 20/0503 UTC as it rotated onto the east limb. Region 2415 produced an M2/2n flare at 20/1803 UTC accompanied by a Type II (1358 km/s) radio sweep as well as a 320 sfu Tenflare. An associated CME was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 20/1812 UTC and a WSA-Enlil model run is in progress to determine geoeffectiveness.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however, an enhancement was observed in conjunction with the M2 flare from 20 Sep with a peak flux of 3 pfu at 20/2045 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels from 14-18 Sep due to a combination of effects from a CME and coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 19-20 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels on 14 Sep due to the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS late in the day. Quiet to active levels persisted from 15-17 Sep as HSS influence continued. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 18 Sep as CH HSS effects subsided. Predominately quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 19 Sep with the exception of isolated active and minor storm periods from 19/0300-0600 UTC and 19/0600-0900 UTC, respectively, in response to a solar sector boundary change and a prolonged period of negative Bz. A geomagnetic Sudden Impulse of 27 nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer on 20 Sep at 0605 UTC indicating the arrival of the 18 Sep CME. Unsettled to severe storm conditions were subsequently observed and then were followed by the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 September - 17 October 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels from 21 Sep - 02 Oct as Region 2420 makes its way across the visible disk. Low levels are anticipated from 03-05 Oct. Low to moderate levels are likely to return on 06 Oct when Region 2415 is expected to rotate back into view and remain elevated through the end of the forecast period (17 Oct).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit although a slight chance exists from 21-22 Sep when Region 2415 rotates off of the west limb and 06-17 Oct when it returns as it now has a history of producing protons.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels from 21-27 Sep due to influence from various CME and CH HSS activity. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 28 Sep to 01 Oct. Chances for high levels return from 02-11 Oct due to effects from a series of recurrent, positive polarity high speed streams. Predominately normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels early on 21 Sep due to waning effects of the 18 Sep CME and CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 22-24 Sep although analysis is ongoing to determine if and when the 20 Sep CME will affect field activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected from 25-26 Sep due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 27-30 Sep. A series of recurrent positive polarity high speed streams are expected to increase field activity to a baseline of unsettled to active conditions from 01-09 Oct with minor storm levels likely on 01 Oct and 05-06 Oct and major storm levels likely on 04 and 08 Oct during peak influence as well as co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) preceding the onset of the individual streams. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 10-16 Oct with isolated active periods possible during periods of sustained negative Bz as HSS influence subsides. Unsettled to active levels are expected with a chance for minor storm periods on 17 Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 21 0539 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-09-21
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Sep 21 110 20 5
2015 Sep 22 110 12 3
2015 Sep 23 110 8 3
2015 Sep 24 105 8 3
2015 Sep 25 100 16 4
2015 Sep 26 95 14 3
2015 Sep 27 95 8 3
2015 Sep 28 95 8 3
2015 Sep 29 100 8 3
2015 Sep 30 100 8 3
2015 Oct 01 100 20 5
2015 Oct 02 95 15 3
2015 Oct 03 95 15 3
2015 Oct 04 95 45 6
2015 Oct 05 95 25 5
2015 Oct 06 100 18 5
2015 Oct 07 100 12 4
2015 Oct 08 105 50 6
2015 Oct 09 105 15 4
2015 Oct 10 105 12 3
2015 Oct 11 105 12 3
2015 Oct 12 100 12 3
2015 Oct 13 95 12 3
2015 Oct 14 95 12 3
2015 Oct 15 95 12 3
2015 Oct 16 90 12 3
2015 Oct 17 90 18 4
(NOAA)