Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Sep 28 0507 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 September 2015
Solar activity began the week at low levels but reached moderate levels at the end of the period. Region 2420 (N10, L=102, class/area Ekc/290 on 21 Sep) produced a C8/Sn flare at 21/0518 UTC on 21 Sep and several B-class events on 22 Sep. Region 2422 (S20, L=102, class/area Ekc/650 on 27 Sep) produced the majority of the activity for the rest of the week with several C-class flares from 23-27 Sep as well as two M-class flares on 27 Sep. The first M-class flare was an M1/1f at 27/1040 UTC and the second reached M1/1n at 27/2100 UTC.It also produced a C9/1n flare at 27/1958 UTC that was accompanied by a 130 sfu Tenflare.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels from 21-22 Sep due to waning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 23 Sep with an isolated active period from 23/1500-1800 UTC due to a prolonged period of negative Bz. Quiet to unsettled levels returned on 24 Sep followed by quiet conditions for the remainder of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 September - 24 October 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels from 28 Sep - 03 Oct due to flare potential from Regions 2420, 2421 (N17, L=120, class/area Dac/110 on 26 Sep), and 2422. Very low to low levels are expected from 04-14 Oct. A chance for moderate levels returns from 15-24 Oct as Region 2420 is anticipated to rotate back onto the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels possible on 03 and 06 Oct, 09-15 Oct and 18-24 Oct following recurrent CH HSS events.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Active periods are likely on 01-02 Oct, 04-05 Oct,
07-09 Oct, and 16-17 Oct due to recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 28 0507 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-09-28
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Sep 28 130 7 3
2015 Sep 29 125 7 3
2015 Sep 30 120 7 3
2015 Oct 01 120 15 4
2015 Oct 02 115 10 4
2015 Oct 03 110 7 3
2015 Oct 04 110 15 4
2015 Oct 05 110 12 4
2015 Oct 06 115 8 3
2015 Oct 07 115 12 4
2015 Oct 08 115 18 4
2015 Oct 09 115 10 4
2015 Oct 10 115 8 3
2015 Oct 11 110 8 3
2015 Oct 12 110 8 3
2015 Oct 13 115 8 3
2015 Oct 14 120 8 3
2015 Oct 15 125 8 3
2015 Oct 16 130 10 4
2015 Oct 17 130 12 4
2015 Oct 18 130 8 3
2015 Oct 19 125 8 3
2015 Oct 20 120 8 3
2015 Oct 21 120 8 3
2015 Oct 22 120 8 3
2015 Oct 23 120 8 3
2015 Oct 24 120 8 3
(NOAA)