Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Oct 05 1821 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 September - 04 October 2015
Solar activity reached high levels as the period was dominated by M-class flare activity from active regions located in the southwest quadrant. In total 20 M-class flares were observed with two reaching the R2 (Moderate) radio blackout threshold. Four R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed from Region 2423 (S09, L=154, class/area=Dac/180 on 28 Sep) early in the period as the region transited the southwest limb, but once out of view Region 2422 (S18, L=102, class/area=Fkc/950 on 29 Sep) became the source of the remainder of M-class flare activity. Region 2422 was relatively benign until it reached central meridian and began a rapid growth phase where it increased significantly in magnetic complexity. Region 2422 produced a total of 14 R1 (Minor) radio blackouts and two R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts, the largest of which was an M7 flare observed at 28/1458 UTC. Numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the activity eminating from the southwest quadrant were observed throughout the period, but none were Earth-directed.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced late on 30 Sep through midday on 01 Oct due to a pair of M1/1n flares from Region 2422 observed midday on 30 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux briefly reached a peak of 1.4 pfu at 01/0000 UTC but began a slow return to background levels shortly thereafter.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 28 Sep-01 Oct and was at normal levels on 02-04 Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 28 and 30 Sep and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Sep under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to active levels were observed on 01-03 Oct due to a combination of weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream influence, a period of prolonged southward Bz, and substorming. On 04 Oct active conditions were observed early and late in the period with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed between 0600-0900 UTC. The geomagnetic field activity on 04 Oct was attributed to periods of southward Bz and localized
substorms.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 October - 31 October 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels throughout the period with likely C-class flare activity and a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity on 06-29 Oct due to the return of multiple active regions which produced event level activity last rotation.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 08-15 Oct with moderate levels expected on 05-07 and 16-24 Oct. Normal levels are expected for the
remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 09 Oct with active levels expected on 05, 08, 10, 17, 20, 29, and 31 Oct due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 05 1823 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-10-05
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Oct 05 85 12 4
2015 Oct 06 85 8 3
2015 Oct 07 85 8 3
2015 Oct 08 90 15 4
2015 Oct 09 90 20 5
2015 Oct 10 95 18 4
2015 Oct 11 95 12 3
2015 Oct 12 100 8 3
2015 Oct 13 115 8 3
2015 Oct 14 120 8 3
2015 Oct 15 125 8 3
2015 Oct 16 130 10 3
2015 Oct 17 130 12 4
2015 Oct 18 130 8 3
2015 Oct 19 125 10 3
2015 Oct 20 120 12 4
2015 Oct 21 120 8 3
2015 Oct 22 120 8 3
2015 Oct 23 120 8 3
2015 Oct 24 120 8 3
2015 Oct 25 120 8 3
2015 Oct 26 115 8 3
2015 Oct 27 110 8 3
2015 Oct 28 100 10 3
2015 Oct 29 100 12 4
2015 Oct 30 95 10 3
2015 Oct 31 90 12 4
(NOAA)