Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 01 0641 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 - 31 January 2016
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Low levels were observed from 25-29 January with Regions 2488 (N02, L=320, class/area Dai/240 on 25 January) and 2489 (N10, L=253, class/area Eko/300 on 29 January) producing the majority of the C-class flaring. The largest flare of the period was a C9/1f at 28/1202 UTC from Region 2488. Region 2488 was in slow decay over the period. Region 2489 continued to exhibit growth through 28 January and slowly decayed thereafter. Several filament eruptions, and subsequent coronal mass ejections (CMEs), were observed during the period, but none had an Earth-directed component.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 25-27 January, moderate levels on 28 January, and normal levels from 29-31 January. The maximum flux of the period was 2,117 pfu observed at 26/1500 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels throughout the period with isolated unsettled periods on 27-28 and 31 January and an isolated active period observed late on 31 January. Solar wind parameters were in decline as the period began under the waning influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed gradually decreased from approximately 480 km/s early in the period to around 260 km/s by 30 January before increasing slightly to 300 km/s by the end-of-the-period. A solar sector boundary crossing into a positive (away) orientation occurred at approximately 27/0834 UTC, accompanied by a slight increase in total field (Bt) measurements to 9 nT on 27 and 28 January. On 31 January, another increase in Bt to 10 nT was observed along with a prolonged period of southward Bz. The geomagnetic field responded with isolated active levels to end the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 February - 27 February 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) from 03-25 February with the return of old Regions 2484 (N08, L=094) and 2488 (N02, L=320).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 04-07, 09-15, and 18-23 February as a result of CH HSS influence. The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 01 February due to continued effects from a prolonged period of southward Bz. Unsettled to active levels are likely from 02-04, 08-09, and 17-20 February due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 01 0641 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-02-01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Feb 01 100 12 4
2016 Feb 02 100 12 4
2016 Feb 03 100 15 4
2016 Feb 04 100 8 3
2016 Feb 05 95 5 2
2016 Feb 06 90 5 2
2016 Feb 07 90 5 2
2016 Feb 08 95 12 4
2016 Feb 09 95 10 3
2016 Feb 10 95 8 3
2016 Feb 11 105 5 2
2016 Feb 12 105 5 2
2016 Feb 13 105 5 2
2016 Feb 14 105 5 2
2016 Feb 15 105 5 2
2016 Feb 16 105 5 2
2016 Feb 17 105 10 3
2016 Feb 18 105 15 4
2016 Feb 19 105 12 4
2016 Feb 20 105 10 3
2016 Feb 21 100 5 2
2016 Feb 22 100 5 2
2016 Feb 23 100 5 2
2016 Feb 24 100 5 2
2016 Feb 25 100 5 2
2016 Feb 26 100 5 2
2016 Feb 27 100 5 2
(NOAA)