Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 29 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 February 2016
Solar activity reached low levels with only C-class flare activity observed this period. Region 2506 (S05, L=224, class/area=110/Dai o 28 Feb) was responsible for nearly all flare activity this period
including three low-level C-class flares, the largest of which was a C3/Sf flare at 0500 UTC on 27 Feb. A filament eruption centered near S16E19 (vicinity of Region 2506) was observed in SDO/AIA imagery between 0030-0130 UTC on 18 Feb but no associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery suggesting the bulk of the plasma was reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 22-24 and 28 Feb with moderate levels observed throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity briefly reached unsettled levels on 23-24 and 26 Feb with quiet conditions observed throughout the remainder of the period under a nominal solar wind regime.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 February - 26 March 2016
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 29 Feb and 15-26 Mar. Solar activity is expected to increase to low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) on 01-14 Mar due to the return of old Region 2497 (N12, L=240) which produced four M-class flares last rotation.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit barring any significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15-22 Mar, moderate levels on 04-05, 07-08, 13-14, and 23-26 Mar, and at normal levels for the
remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 14-16 Mar and active levels on 01, 06, and 17 Mar due to the effects of multiple recurrent coronal hole
high speed streams (CH HSSs). Quiet or quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field conditions under a nominal solar wind regime are
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 29 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-02-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Feb 29 95 5 2
2016 Mar 01 105 15 4
2016 Mar 02 110 12 3
2016 Mar 03 115 10 3
2016 Mar 04 115 10 3
2016 Mar 05 110 8 3
2016 Mar 06 110 15 4
2016 Mar 07 105 10 3
2016 Mar 08 105 8 3
2016 Mar 09 105 5 2
2016 Mar 10 105 5 2
2016 Mar 11 105 8 3
2016 Mar 12 105 5 2
2016 Mar 13 105 12 3
2016 Mar 14 100 30 5
2016 Mar 15 100 30 5
2016 Mar 16 95 30 5
2016 Mar 17 95 15 4
2016 Mar 18 95 8 3
2016 Mar 19 95 5 2
2016 Mar 20 95 5 2
2016 Mar 21 90 5 2
2016 Mar 22 90 5 2
2016 Mar 23 90 5 2
2016 Mar 24 90 5 2
2016 Mar 25 90 5 2
2016 Mar 26 90 5 2
(NOAA)