Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 08 0222 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contacy http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 February 2016
Solar activity was at low levels throughout the entire period. Several regions produced low level C-class events, the largest a C5/Sf at 04/1822 UTC from Region 2494 (S11, L=162, class/area Dki/270 on 07 Feb). A filament eruption observed beginning on 05/1939 UTC near S19W28 was associated with a CME that is anticipated to be a glancing blow midday on 09 Feb. Several other small filament eruptions occurred but none were expected to be geoeffective.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity began the week at quiet to unsettled levels. Active to minor storm conditions were observed early on 03 Feb due to a co-rotating interactive region (CIR) followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed during largely nominal solar wind conditions from 04-07 Feb, with the exception of an isolated active period on 07 Feb due to prolonged negative Bz.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 February - 05 March 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels possible from 12-16 Feb and 19-23 Feb following subsequent CH HSS events.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm periods on 08 Feb due to prolonged negative Bz and negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to active conditions are likely to continue into 09 Feb as effects continue iet to unsettled conditions are expected from 10-12 Feb as a recurrent positive polarity HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 13-16 Feb. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 17-19 Feb with active periods possible on 18 Feb due to effects from a recurrent negative polarity HSS. Predominately quiet conditions are expected from 20-29 Feb. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with isolated active periods possible on 01-03 Mar as another positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Quiet conditions are expected to close out the forecast period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 08 0222 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-02-08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Feb 08 115 18 5
2016 Feb 09 115 18 4
2016 Feb 10 118 8 3
2016 Feb 11 115 10 3
2016 Feb 12 112 10 3
2016 Feb 13 110 5 2
2016 Feb 14 110 5 2
2016 Feb 15 110 5 2
2016 Feb 16 110 5 2
2016 Feb 17 112 10 3
2016 Feb 18 112 15 4
2016 Feb 19 115 12 4
2016 Feb 20 110 8 3
2016 Feb 21 115 5 2
2016 Feb 22 115 5 2
2016 Feb 23 115 5 2
2016 Feb 24 110 5 2
2016 Feb 25 112 5 2
2016 Feb 26 115 5 2
2016 Feb 27 115 5 2
2016 Feb 28 112 5 2
2016 Feb 29 112 5 2
2016 Mar 01 110 15 3
2016 Mar 02 105 10 3
2016 Mar 03 100 12 3
2016 Mar 04 105 8 3
2016 Mar 05 100 5 2
(NOAA)