Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Aug 15 0115 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html #
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 August 2016
Solar activity was at very low to low levels with C-class activity observed on 08, 09, 11 and 14 Aug. Region 2574 (N05, L=173, class/area Dho/290 on 09 Aug) was the most active region recording
six C-class flares. The largest of these was a C8/Sf observed at 09/0042 UTC. Regions 2571 (N13, L=268, class/area Dac/200 on 08 Aug) and 2572 (N13, L=320, class/area Dao/110 on 07 Aug) each produced weak C-class flares on 08 Aug. The period ended with a C1 flare observed at 14/1936 UTC from an unnumbered region on the NE limb. A few CMEs were observed during the period, but none had an Earth-directed component.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the summary period. A maximum of 12,032 pfu was observed at 13/1745 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 08 Aug through early on 12 Aug due to effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet levels were observed for the remainder of the period.
Solar wind speeds reached a maximum speed of about 675 km/s at 10/0830 UTC. Bt ranged between 3-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +7 to -5 nT early in the period. The phi angle was in a predominately positive sector throughout the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 August - 10 September 2016
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity through the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 15, 19-23, 26-28, 31 Aug and 01-10 Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) storm levels on 16 and 30-31 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 15, 17-19, 24-25 Aug and
01-08 Sep, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 15 0115 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html #
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-08-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Aug 15 90 12 4
2016 Aug 16 90 18 5
2016 Aug 17 90 10 4
2016 Aug 18 90 8 3
2016 Aug 19 85 8 3
2016 Aug 20 80 5 2
2016 Aug 21 80 5 2
2016 Aug 22 75 5 2
2016 Aug 23 75 5 2
2016 Aug 24 75 15 4
2016 Aug 25 75 15 4
2016 Aug 26 75 5 2
2016 Aug 27 75 5 2
2016 Aug 28 75 5 2
2016 Aug 29 75 15 4
2016 Aug 30 75 25 5
2016 Aug 31 75 18 5
2016 Sep 01 75 15 4
2016 Sep 02 80 15 4
2016 Sep 03 85 12 4
2016 Sep 04 90 12 4
2016 Sep 05 90 15 4
2016 Sep 06 90 15 4
2016 Sep 07 90 8 3
2016 Sep 08 90 10 3
2016 Sep 09 90 5 2
2016 Sep 10 90 5 2
(NOAA)