Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Sep 05 0405 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html #
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 04 September 2016
Solar activity was at low levels from 29-31 Aug. Regions 2583 (N13, L=025, class/area Dao/130 on 29 Aug) and 2585 (N08, L=222, class/area Ekc/590 on 03 Sep) were responsible for the C-class
activity. Activity dropped to very low levels for the remainder of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 29 Aug and 02-04 Sep due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 29-31 Aug with active conditions late on 30 Aug due to CH HSS effects. Mostly active to major storm conditions were observed on 01-03 Sep due to effects from an extension of the northern polar coronal hole. Active to minor storm levels prevailed on 04 Sep due to continued CH HSS effects.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 September - 01 October 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels
throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high to very high levels on 05-12 Sep due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 13-20 Sept and 26-28 Sep. High levels are expected on 21-25 Sep and 29 Sep-01 Oct due to effects from anticipated recurrent CH HSS events.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 05-06 Sep with minor storms expected early on 05 Sep as CH HSS effects continue. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 07-08 Sep as effects begin to subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 09-18 Sep with isolated unsettled periods likely on 13, 14 and 17 Sep due to weak recurrent CH HSS events. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 19-21 Sep with active periods possible on 19 Sep due to effects from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 22-25 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26-27 Sep followed by active to major storm levels from 26 Sep-01 Oct due to effects from the northern polar coronal hole extension.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 05 0405 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-09-05
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Sep 05 98 20 5
2016 Sep 06 98 12 4
2016 Sep 07 98 10 3
2016 Sep 08 95 10 3
2016 Sep 09 95 5 2
2016 Sep 10 90 5 2
2016 Sep 11 90 5 2
2016 Sep 12 95 5 2
2016 Sep 13 100 10 4
2016 Sep 14 100 8 3
2016 Sep 15 105 5 2
2016 Sep 16 108 5 2
2016 Sep 17 108 8 3
2016 Sep 18 108 5 2
2016 Sep 19 108 15 4
2016 Sep 20 110 12 4
2016 Sep 21 105 8 3
2016 Sep 22 110 5 2
2016 Sep 23 112 5 2
2016 Sep 24 112 5 2
2016 Sep 25 108 5 2
2016 Sep 26 105 12 4
2016 Sep 27 105 8 3
2016 Sep 28 100 35 6
2016 Sep 29 95 38 6
2016 Sep 30 95 40 6
2016 Oct 01 95 25 5
(NOAA)