Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Sep 12 0323 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 September 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels on 05-11 Sep. Region 2591 (N05, L=144, Cro/025 on 11 Sep) produced a B9.6 flare at 10/1920 UTC, the strongest of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels on 05 Sep and high levels from 06-11 Sep due to CH HSS influence. The largest flux value of the period was 56,842 pfu observed at 05/1815 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels on 05 Sep due to a period of prolonged southward Bz during the waning phase of a CH HSS. Solar wind speed continued to decline over the
period from a high near 600 km/s to 340 km/s by the end of the period. Activity decreased to quiet to active conditions on 06 Sep and to quiet to unsettled conditions on 07 Sep. A final increase to
quiet to active conditions was observed on 08 Sep before quiet conditions dominated for the remainder of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 September - 08 October 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 12-20 Sep and 26-28 Sep. High levels expected on 21-25 Sep, 29 Sep - 01 Oct, and 06-08
Oct. Very high levels are likely between 02-05 Oct. High and very high levels are anticipated to result from recurrent CH HSS events.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 12 Sep as a solar sector boundary crossing is anticipated to transition into a weak, negative polarity, CH HSS. As the CH HSS influence wanes, quiet to unsettled levels are likely over 13-14 Sep. Quiet conditions are expected on 15-16 Sep under an ambient solar wind environment. 17-21 Sep will likely to be at quiet to active conditions as a negative polarity CH HSS influences the near-Earth environment. Quiet conditions are again expected from 22-25 Sep. 26-27 Sep are likely to be at unsettled to active
conditions from a small, positive polarity, CH HSS. 28-30 Sep are likely to see field active range from unsettled to major storm levels from a strong, positive polarity, CH HSS. As the CH HSS
influence wanes, unsettled to minor storm levels are likely on 01 Oct and quiet to active levels are expected from 02-05 Oct. Quiet conditions are expected to return over 06-08 Oct under a nominal
solar wind regime.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 12 0323 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-09-12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Sep 12 86 15 4
2016 Sep 13 82 8 3
2016 Sep 14 80 8 3
2016 Sep 15 80 5 2
2016 Sep 16 75 5 2
2016 Sep 17 75 12 4
2016 Sep 18 70 12 4
2016 Sep 19 70 12 4
2016 Sep 20 75 15 4
2016 Sep 21 75 10 3
2016 Sep 22 75 5 2
2016 Sep 23 75 5 2
2016 Sep 24 75 5 2
2016 Sep 25 72 5 2
2016 Sep 26 78 15 4
2016 Sep 27 80 8 3
2016 Sep 28 78 38 6
2016 Sep 29 78 40 6
2016 Sep 30 78 42 6
2016 Oct 01 82 30 5
2016 Oct 02 82 18 4
2016 Oct 03 80 15 4
2016 Oct 04 80 12 4
2016 Oct 05 80 10 3
2016 Oct 06 80 5 2
2016 Oct 07 80 5 2
2016 Oct 08 82 5 2
(NOAA)