Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Oct 31 0550 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 October 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels during the period. The two numbered regions on the visible disk were Region 2603 (N13, L=340 class/area Dao/080 on 26 October) and 2604 (N07, L=261, class/area
Bxo/010 on 29 October). Other activity included a slow moving coronal mass ejection (CME) directed mostly south of the ecliptic beginning at 30/1012 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The source of the CME was unclear and may be associated with magnetic re-connection near S30E15. Preliminary analysis indicated a possible weak glancing blow arrival around midday on 04 November. Further analysis is currently underway. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 24-25 October and reached high levels from 26-30 October. The largest flux value of the period was 47,726 pfu observed at 27/1530 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong) storm levels. The period started off under the waning influence of a weak isolated positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds were mostly in the 380 km/s to 430 km/s range with total field values between 5 nT and 10 nT and prolonged periods of southward Bz. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 24 October. Early on 25 October, total field began to rise
to a maximum of 21 nT at 25/1016 UTC while the Bz component deflected southward to -17 nT indicating the onset of a co-rotating interaction region. This was followed by a rise in solar wind speed to around 750-830 km/s as a large, polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS moved into geoeffective position. Coronal hole influence declined to the 530-680 km/s by midday on 27 October and remained there until the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with active to G3 (Strong) storm levels on 25 October, active to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 26 October, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 27 and 29 October, unsettled to active levels on 28 October, and quiet to active levels on 30 October.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 October - 26 November 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels with high levels likely from 31 October-06 November, 12-19 November, and again from 22-26 November due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 31 October-01 November, 11-15, and 19-26 November with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 13, 21-23, and 25 November and G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely on 21-22 November due to recurrent CH
HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 31 0550 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-10-31
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Oct 31 80 15 4
2016 Nov 01 80 12 4
2016 Nov 02 80 8 3
2016 Nov 03 78 8 3
2016 Nov 04 82 8 3
2016 Nov 05 82 5 2
2016 Nov 06 82 8 3
2016 Nov 07 80 5 2
2016 Nov 08 80 5 2
2016 Nov 09 78 5 2
2016 Nov 10 78 5 2
2016 Nov 11 80 10 3
2016 Nov 12 80 15 4
2016 Nov 13 78 18 5
2016 Nov 14 75 10 3
2016 Nov 15 73 8 3
2016 Nov 16 73 5 2
2016 Nov 17 78 5 2
2016 Nov 18 78 5 2
2016 Nov 19 77 8 3
2016 Nov 20 75 15 4
2016 Nov 21 78 54 6
2016 Nov 22 78 42 6
2016 Nov 23 80 24 5
2016 Nov 24 80 18 4
2016 Nov 25 80 22 5
2016 Nov 26 78 18 4
(NOAA)