Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Nov 28 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 November 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest flare of the period was at B6 at 22/0010 UTC from Region 2612 (N09, L=194, class/area Hax/230 on 25 November). No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate levels on 22-24 November while high levels were reached on
21 and 25-27 November. The largest flux of the period was 25,245 pfu at 27/1625 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions. Enhanced geomagnetic activity was due to recurrent, positive-polarity, coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS). The period began with solar wind speeds near 330 km/s on 21 November with an increasing total field from approximately 1 nT early in the period to near 12 nT by 22 November and a fluctuating Bz component between +10 nT and -8 nT. Solar wind speed increased, thereafter, to near 510 km/s by 23 November while total field decreased to near 3 nT. Another enhancement in total field was observed late on 23 November to a maximum near 11 nT on 24 November before decreasing to 5 nT by 25 November. Stepped increases in solar wind speed occurred at 24/0514 UTC from 400 km/s to 500 km/s and at 25/0144 UTC from 500 km/s to near 700 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 21 November, quiet to active levels on 22-23 November, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 24 November, unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 25 November and quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 November.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 November - 24 December 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the forecast period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 28 November-07 December, 10-18 December and again on 22-24 December due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on 28-30 November as the geomagnetic field recovers from positive polarity CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected from 07-11 December and 19-24 December with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels likely on 10 and 21-22 December due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 28 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-11-28
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Nov 28 84 8 3
2016 Nov 29 83 8 3
2016 Nov 30 83 8 3
2016 Dec 01 80 5 2
2016 Dec 02 80 5 2
2016 Dec 03 80 5 2
2016 Dec 04 82 5 2
2016 Dec 05 82 5 2
2016 Dec 06 80 5 2
2016 Dec 07 80 15 4
2016 Dec 08 78 12 4
2016 Dec 09 78 18 4
2016 Dec 10 78 20 5
2016 Dec 11 78 10 3
2016 Dec 12 80 5 2
2016 Dec 13 80 5 2
2016 Dec 14 82 5 2
2016 Dec 15 82 5 2
2016 Dec 16 80 5 2
2016 Dec 17 80 5 2
2016 Dec 18 78 8 3
2016 Dec 19 78 12 4
2016 Dec 20 80 16 4
2016 Dec 21 80 22 5
2016 Dec 22 80 30 5
2016 Dec 23 82 12 4
2016 Dec 24 82 10 3
(NOAA)