Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Dec 12 0110 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 December 2016
Solar activity ranged from very low to low over the period. Very low levels were observed on 06-09 December and again on 11 December. Low
levels occured on 05 and 10 December with isolated C-class flare activity observed from Region 2615 (S07, L=139, class/area Dai/200
on 05 Dec).
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 05-07 December and on 09-11 December with moderate
levels observed on 08 December. A peak flux of 24,002 pfu was observed at 11/1525 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with a couple of isolated G1 (Minor) storms periods. The period began with
quiet to isolated unsettled activity through midday on 07 December. Solar wind parameters were nominal with winds speeds in the 300-375
km/s range. By midday to late on 07 December, activity levels increased to unsettled to active as the field came under the
influence of a large, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Phi angle rotated from a positve to a negative orientation, wind speeds spiked
from about 375 km/s to near 550 km/s, total field Bt increased to 16 nT while the Bz component was variable between +14 nT to -8 nT. From
08-09 December, wind speeds continued to increase reaching a peak of 731 km/s early on 09 December. Field conditions responded with
unsettled to active levels with G1 (Minor) strom levels recorded late on the 9th. From 10-11 December, field conditions were
generally at unsettled to active levels with some quiet periods on the 10th. Wind speeds began a gradual decline with values near 550
km/s by the end of the summary period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 December - 07 January 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance of C-class activity throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at mostly high levels through the summary period with
moderate levels likely on 19-21 December.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 18-25 December and again on 02-07 January due to recurrent
CH HSSs. In addition, G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on 21 December and 04-05 January to include G2 (Moderate) storm conditions
on 22 December. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt :Issued: 2016 Dec 12 0110 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table # Issued 2016-12-12 # # UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest # Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index 2016 Dec 12 73 8 3 2016 Dec 13 73 5 2 2016 Dec 14 75 5 2 2016 Dec 15 75 5 2 2016 Dec 16 75 5 2 2016 Dec 17 75 5 2 2016 Dec 18 75 8 3 2016 Dec 19 82 12 4 2016 Dec 20 82 16 4 2016 Dec 21 86 22 5 2016 Dec 22 86 30 6 2016 Dec 23 88 12 4 2016 Dec 24 88 10 3 2016 Dec 25 88 8 3 2016 Dec 26 88 5 2 2016 Dec 27 88 5 2 2016 Dec 28 86 5 2 2016 Dec 29 86 5 2 2016 Dec 30 88 5 2 2016 Dec 31 88 5 2 2017 Jan 01 88 5 2 2017 Jan 02 86 8 3 2017 Jan 03 86 10 3 2017 Jan 04 84 20 5 2017 Jan 05 82 22 5 2017 Jan 06 80 16 4 2017 Jan 07 80 16 4(NOAA)