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| NOAA - Propagation CIrcle |
:Issued: 2017 Jan 02 0408 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 December - 01 January 2017
Solar activity was at background levels through the period. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 26-31 Dec, dropping to normal to moderate levels late on 31 Dec - 01 Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity from the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels through the period. G1 conditions were observed early on 26 Dec as influence from a positive polarity CH HSS persisted from the previous reporting period. The CH HSS began to wane early on 27 Dec, causing a geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to active levels. As solar wind speeds continue their slow decline, quiet to unsettled conditions on 28 Dec gave way to quiet conditions on 29-30 Dec. Quiet to unsettled activity was once again observed beginning on 31 Dec as the onset of another positive polarity CH HSS was observed. Wind speeds increased from around 300 km/s to between 450-550 km/s as well as total magnetic field strength from around 5 nT to a peak of nearly 20 nT at 31/1636 UTC. Active conditions were observed early on 01 Jan as the CIR transitioned into the high-speed stream proper. As total magnetic field strength gradually trended towards 5 nT, geomagnetic activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 January - 28 January 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high on 02-03 Jan, 05-13 Jan, and 18-27 Jan; moderate
electron flux is expected on 04 Jan, 14-17 Jan and 28 Jan. All increases in electron flux are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 02 Jan, 08 Jan, 14 Jan and 23 Jan; active levels are expected on 03-04 Jan, 06-07 Jan, 20-22 Jan and 27-28 Jan; G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 05 Jan and 17-19 Jan. All elevated geomagnetic activity is anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to observe quiet conditions under an ambient solar wind environment.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jan 02 0408 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-01-02
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Jan 02 73 10 3
2017 Jan 03 73 12 4
2017 Jan 04 73 18 4
2017 Jan 05 73 24 5
2017 Jan 06 73 22 4
2017 Jan 07 75 15 4
2017 Jan 08 75 8 3
2017 Jan 09 75 5 2
2017 Jan 10 75 5 2
2017 Jan 11 75 5 2
2017 Jan 12 76 5 2
2017 Jan 13 76 5 2
2017 Jan 14 76 10 3
2017 Jan 15 77 5 2
2017 Jan 16 77 5 2
2017 Jan 17 77 25 5
2017 Jan 18 77 20 5
2017 Jan 19 77 25 5
2017 Jan 20 75 18 4
2017 Jan 21 75 20 4
2017 Jan 22 75 20 4
2017 Jan 23 75 10 3
2017 Jan 24 75 5 2
2017 Jan 25 74 5 2
2017 Jan 26 74 5 2
2017 Jan 27 74 12 4
2017 Jan 28 73 15 4
(NOAA)