Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jan 16 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 January 2017
Solar activity was mostly at very low levels with low levels observed on 12 January due to an isolated C3 flare observed at 12/1618 UTC from Region 2625 (N03, L=254, class/area Cso/050 on 14 January). An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed off the east limb in coronagraph imagery beginning at 12/1624 UTC, but was determined not to have a geoeffective component. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels throughout the period. The largest flux of the period was 42,125 pfu observed at 09/1805 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Solar wind speed began the period near 700 km/s with total field near 5 nT under the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By 10 January, solar wind speed was in decline, reaching nominal levels late on 12 January. Total field was variable between 1-7 nT for the rest of the period.
The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 09 January, quiet to unsettled levels on 10-12 January and quiet levels on 13-15 January.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 January - 11 February 2017
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 16-26 January as Regions 2625 and 2626 (N09, L=244, class/area Hax/140 on 15 January) rotate across the visible disk. Very low levels are expected from 27 January through 11 February.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 16, 18-27 January and again on 01-11 February due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 17-24 and 27 January-07 February with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 18-19 January and 03 February due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jan 16 0342 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-01-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Jan 16 77 5 2
2017 Jan 17 77 8 3
2017 Jan 18 77 25 5
2017 Jan 19 78 20 5
2017 Jan 20 80 18 4
2017 Jan 21 80 18 4
2017 Jan 22 80 18 4
2017 Jan 23 80 12 4
2017 Jan 24 80 8 3
2017 Jan 25 80 5 2
2017 Jan 26 78 5 2
2017 Jan 27 77 12 4
2017 Jan 28 77 15 4
2017 Jan 29 77 7 3
2017 Jan 30 77 10 3
2017 Jan 31 77 12 4
2017 Feb 01 77 16 4
2017 Feb 02 76 18 4
2017 Feb 03 75 20 5
2017 Feb 04 75 16 4
2017 Feb 05 75 12 4
2017 Feb 06 75 10 3
2017 Feb 07 75 8 3
2017 Feb 08 75 5 2
2017 Feb 09 76 5 2
2017 Feb 10 77 5 2
2017 Feb 11 77 5 2
(NOAA)