Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jan 30 0445 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 January 2017
Solar activity was at mostly very low levels with low levels observed on 28 January due to an isolated C2 flare at 28/2109 UT from Region 2627 (N06, L=193, class/area Dai/110 on 22 January). An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed off of the west limb in coronagraph imagery beginning at 28/2148 UTC but was determined not to have a geoeffective component. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with high levels observed on 23-24, and 26-29 January. The largest flux value of the period was 2,495 pfu observed at 28/1800 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Solar wind parameters were indicative of background conditions to start the period. Midday on 26 January, wind speed began to increase as an isolated, positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Wind speed reached a maximum of 697 km/s at 27/0609 UTC and total field peaked at 16 nT at 26/2330 UTC before gradually decreasing throughout the remainder of the period. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 23-24
January, quiet to unsettled levels on 25, 28-29 January, and quiet to active levels on 26-27 January.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 January - 25 February 2017
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on 30 January - 04 February as Regions 2628 (N12, L=174, class/area Dso/220 on 23 January) and 2629 (N15, L=110, class/area Dao/220 on 25 January) rotate across the visible disk. Very low levels are expected from 05-11 February. Very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares are expected on 12-25 February with the return of Region 2627.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 01-13, 16-18, and 22-25 February due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 30 January - 07 February, and again on 14-18 and 22-25 February with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 31 January, and 01 February due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jan 30 0445 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-01-30
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Jan 30 76 10 3
2017 Jan 31 75 25 5
2017 Feb 01 75 20 5
2017 Feb 02 75 18 4
2017 Feb 03 74 15 4
2017 Feb 04 74 15 4
2017 Feb 05 72 15 4
2017 Feb 06 72 10 3
2017 Feb 07 75 8 3
2017 Feb 08 76 5 2
2017 Feb 09 77 5 2
2017 Feb 10 77 5 2
2017 Feb 11 77 5 2
2017 Feb 12 77 5 2
2017 Feb 13 78 5 2
2017 Feb 14 79 15 4
2017 Feb 15 81 10 3
2017 Feb 16 83 10 3
2017 Feb 17 83 8 3
2017 Feb 18 83 8 3
2017 Feb 19 85 5 2
2017 Feb 20 85 5 2
2017 Feb 21 85 5 2
2017 Feb 22 80 10 3
2017 Feb 23 80 15 4
2017 Feb 24 80 10 3
2017 Feb 25 75 10 3
(NOAA)