Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 06 0538 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 January - 05 February 2017
Solar activity was very low through the period with only two B-class flares observed from Regions 2631 (S05, L=113, class/area Bxo/010 on 31 January) and 2632 (N14, L=085, class/area Dao/060 on 02 February) on 04 February. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 31 January and reached high levels on 30 January and again on 01-05 February. The largest flux of the period was 22,414 pfu observed at 04/1820 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. The period began with solar wind speeds near 400 km/s. By 30/1138 UTC, total field and solar wind speed began to increase indicating the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region followed by a negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). By 31/1153, total field reached a maximum of 17.2 nT while the solar wind speed reached a peak of 796 km/s at 31/2041 UTC. By 31/1600 UTC, total field had decreased to 5-6 nT while the solar wind speed began to decline early on 02 February until early on 05 February when another increase to near 630 km/s was observed. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 30 January and 04 February, quiet to active levels on 02-03 and 05 February, and unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 31 January through 01 February.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 February - 04 March 2017
Solar activity is expected to be very low levels throughout the period with a chance for C-class flares on 11-24 February with the return of old Region 2628 (N12, L=174).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 06-13, 16-19, 22-26 and 28 February - 04 March due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet with unsettled to active levels expected on 06-09,14-18, 22-25 and 27 February - 04 March with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 27 February and 01-02 March and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 28 February due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Feb 06 0538 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-02-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Feb 06 72 10 3
2017 Feb 07 72 12 4
2017 Feb 08 72 12 4
2017 Feb 09 72 8 3
2017 Feb 10 72 5 2
2017 Feb 11 75 5 2
2017 Feb 12 75 5 2
2017 Feb 13 75 5 2
2017 Feb 14 75 15 4
2017 Feb 15 76 10 3
2017 Feb 16 77 10 3
2017 Feb 17 78 8 3
2017 Feb 18 80 8 3
2017 Feb 19 80 5 2
2017 Feb 20 82 5 2
2017 Feb 21 82 5 2
2017 Feb 22 81 10 3
2017 Feb 23 79 15 4
2017 Feb 24 77 10 3
2017 Feb 25 77 10 3
2017 Feb 26 75 5 2
2017 Feb 27 75 25 5
2017 Feb 28 75 30 6
2017 Mar 01 75 25 5
2017 Mar 02 74 20 5
2017 Mar 03 74 15 4
2017 Mar 04 73 12 4
(NOAA)