Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 20 0107 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 February 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels with only weak background flare activity observed. An 11 degree long filament eruption, centered near N08E02, was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning around 19/0525 UTC. A faint CME was observed off the NE limb, observed in LASCO C2 imagery, at around 19/0648 UTC. WSA-Enlil analysis indicated a possible glancing blow at Earth mid to late on 22 Feb. No other activity was observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 13-14 Feb with moderate levels observed on 15-19 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 13-15 Feb, quiet to isolated unsettled to active levels on 16 Feb, quiet to active levels on 17-18 Feb and quiet to unsettled levels on 19 Feb. A recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective early on 17 Feb affecting the geomagnetic field through late on 19 Feb. During this period, solar wind speeds
generally ranged from 500-600 km/s, total field Bt peaked at 13 nT early on 17 Feb while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -8 nT early on 17 Feb. Phi angle was in a predominately positive orientation.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 February - 18 March 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for isolated C-class activity throughout the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 20-27 Feb and 01-13 Mar. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 28 Feb and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 24 Feb, 01-02 Mar and again on 16 Mar due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Active geomagnetic field activity is expected on 23 and 25 Feb, 03-05 Mar and 17 Mar due to CH HSS influence. Isolated active conditions are likely on 22 Feb due to a glancing blow from the 19 Feb CME. Quiet to unsettled activity is expected for the remainder of the period under a nominal solar wind regime.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Feb 20 0107 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-02-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Feb 20 82 12 4
2017 Feb 21 82 10 3
2017 Feb 22 82 12 4
2017 Feb 23 82 15 4
2017 Feb 24 82 20 5
2017 Feb 25 82 18 4
2017 Feb 26 80 10 3
2017 Feb 27 76 8 3
2017 Feb 28 76 30 6
2017 Mar 01 75 25 5
2017 Mar 02 75 20 5
2017 Mar 03 73 15 4
2017 Mar 04 73 15 4
2017 Mar 05 72 15 4
2017 Mar 06 72 8 3
2017 Mar 07 72 5 2
2017 Mar 08 73 5 2
2017 Mar 09 74 5 2
2017 Mar 10 75 5 2
2017 Mar 11 75 5 2
2017 Mar 12 75 5 2
2017 Mar 13 75 5 2
2017 Mar 14 75 5 2
2017 Mar 15 74 10 3
2017 Mar 16 75 20 5
2017 Mar 17 77 15 4
2017 Mar 18 79 10 3
(NOAA)