Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 27 0113 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 February 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels on 20-21 and 25-26 Feb with low levels observed on 22-24 Feb. Region 2638 (N19, L=111, class/area Dso/150 on 22 Feb) produced three C-class flares, one each on 22-24 Feb. The largest of these was a C4/1f flare observed on 22/1327 UTC. Several weak CMEs were observed during the period, but none of them had an Earth-directed component.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 20, 22-24 and 26 Feb. High levels were observed on 21 and 25 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet to active levels with an isolated minor storm (G1-Minor) interval early on 24 Feb. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 20-21 and 25-26 Feb under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to isolated G1 levels were observed on 22-24 Feb under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of 671 km/s at 24/0516 UTC. Total field (Bt) reached a peak of near 12 nT late on 23 Feb while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -10 nT, again late on 23 Feb. Phi angle was in a predominately positive solar sector throughout the summary period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 February - 25 March 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for isolated C-class activity during the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 27 Feb, 01-13, 19-20 and 24-25 Mar. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 28 Feb, 14-18 and 21-23 Mar.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 01-02 and 16 Mar due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active geomagnetic field activity is expected on 28 Feb, 03-04, 15, 17-19 and 21-24 Mar due to CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period under a nominal solar wind regime.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Feb 27 0113 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-02-27
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Feb 27 79 5 2
2017 Feb 28 77 12 4
2017 Mar 01 77 25 5
2017 Mar 02 79 20 5
2017 Mar 03 79 15 4
2017 Mar 04 79 8 3
2017 Mar 05 75 5 2
2017 Mar 06 72 5 2
2017 Mar 07 72 5 2
2017 Mar 08 73 5 2
2017 Mar 09 74 5 2
2017 Mar 10 75 5 2
2017 Mar 11 75 5 2
2017 Mar 12 75 5 2
2017 Mar 13 75 5 2
2017 Mar 14 75 5 2
2017 Mar 15 74 10 3
2017 Mar 16 75 20 5
2017 Mar 17 77 15 4
2017 Mar 18 79 10 3
2017 Mar 19 80 8 3
2017 Mar 20 82 5 2
2017 Mar 21 82 8 3
2017 Mar 22 82 10 3
2017 Mar 23 82 15 4
2017 Mar 24 80 8 3
2017 Mar 25 80 5 2
(NOAA)