Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Mar 06 0431 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 February - 05 March 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels. The strongest flare of the period, a B9, was produced by Region 2641 (N15, L=041, class/area Cao/100 on 28 Feb).
A ten degree long filament, centered at approximately S21W35, erupted from the solar disk around 27/1421 UTC. A subsequent CME was observed in SOHO C2 imagery. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested no Earth-directed component was present.
On 05 Feb, coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery near
the location of N10E33 around 05/1200 UTC. SOHO C2 imagery displayed
a faint, slow-moving eruption that appeared to be associated with the dimming. At the time of this writing, analysis is ongoing to determine if the likelihood of an Earth-directed component.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background to moderate levels on 27 Feb and normal background levels on 28 Feb. From Mar 01-05, an increase to moderate to high levels was observed in response to the onset and persistent influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels from 27 Feb through the beginning of 01 Mar. Unsettled levels transitioned to G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a peak activity level of G2 (Moderate) by the end of the day on 01 Mar due to the onset of southern polar connected, negative polarity CH HSS. The CIR enhanced total magnetic field strength to maximum value of 21 nT by midday on 01 Mar. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from around 390 km/s at the beginning of the day to 750 km/s by the end of the 01 Mar. As the CH HSS persisted, unsettled to G1 (Minor) activity was observed on 02 Mar, quiet to G1 (Minor) activity on 03-04 Mar, and finally quiet to active conditions were observed on 05 Mar. Solar wind speeds were still elevated, mostly between 600-650 km/s, by the end of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 March - 01 April 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 06-13 Mar, 19-20 Mar, 24 Mar, and 29 Mar - 01 Apr due to influences from multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 14-18 Mar, 21-23 Mar, and 25-28 Mar.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G2 (Moderate) levels over the next 27 days. Unsettled conditions are likely on 09-10 Mar, 15 Mar, 18-19 Mar, and 24 Mar. Active conditions are likely on 06 Mar, 17 Mar, 23 Mar, and 01 Apr. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 16 Mar and 30-31 Mar. G2 (Moderate)
conditions are likely on 28-29 Mar. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the influences of multiple, anticipated, recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remaining days of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Mar 06 0431 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-03-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Mar 06 73 8 3
2017 Mar 07 73 5 2
2017 Mar 08 73 5 2
2017 Mar 09 73 8 3
2017 Mar 10 72 8 3
2017 Mar 11 72 5 2
2017 Mar 12 74 5 2
2017 Mar 13 74 5 2
2017 Mar 14 74 5 2
2017 Mar 15 74 10 3
2017 Mar 16 74 20 5
2017 Mar 17 76 15 4
2017 Mar 18 78 10 3
2017 Mar 19 78 8 3
2017 Mar 20 78 5 2
2017 Mar 21 78 8 3
2017 Mar 22 78 10 3
2017 Mar 23 78 15 4
2017 Mar 24 76 8 3
2017 Mar 25 75 5 2
2017 Mar 26 75 5 2
2017 Mar 27 75 5 2
2017 Mar 28 75 35 6
2017 Mar 29 75 30 6
2017 Mar 30 73 20 5
2017 Mar 31 73 18 5
2017 Apr 01 73 12 4
(NOAA)