Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Apr 03 0655 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 March - 02 April 2017
Solar activity ranged from very low to high during the period due tomultiple M-class flares from Region 2644 (N12, L=57, class/area, Fkc/450 on 02 April). The first was an M4/1f flare at 01/2148 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep. The second M-flare was an M5/2n at 02/0802 UTC with associated Type II (628 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. This was followed by an M2 flare at 02/1300 UTC with an associated weak Tenflare (110 sfu). A long duration M2/Sf flare
was produced at 02/1838 UTC. Finally, the region produced an impulsive M5 flare at 02/2033 UTC with associated multi-frequency discrete radio emissions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to high levels on 27 March - 01 April and reached very high levels on 02 April. The largest flux of the period was 62,136 pfu observed at 02/1525 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm conditions under the influence of a recurrent, polar connected, negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). This period began under a nominal solar wind environment before quickly becoming enhanced. Total field increased to a maximum of 19 nT at 27/0752 UTC while the Bz component deflected southward to -14 nT at 27/0827 UTC. Solar wind speeds started the period near 375 km/s and peaked to a maximum speed of 781 km/s at 28/0711 UTC. The
geomagnetic field responded with G2 (Moderate) storm conditions on 27 March, G1 (Minor) levels on 28, 30-31 March, and quiet to active conditions on 29 March, 01-02 April.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 April - 29 April 2017
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) on 03-04 April due to flare potential in Region 2644. On 05-07 Apr, activity levels will decrease to a chance for moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares with a slight chance for X-class
flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to potential in Region 2645.
There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm from 03-08 April due to the threat of significant flare activity from both Regions 2644 and 2645 (S10, L=18, class/area Ehc/600 on 02 April).
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely from 03-11, 18-28 April and very high levels likely on 29 April due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 03-04, 17-19, and 23-29 April with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 17, 23-27 April and G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely on 23 April due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Apr 03 0655 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-04-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Apr 03 105 8 3
2017 Apr 04 100 7 3
2017 Apr 05 97 6 2
2017 Apr 06 92 5 2
2017 Apr 07 85 5 2
2017 Apr 08 80 5 2
2017 Apr 09 75 5 2
2017 Apr 10 75 5 2
2017 Apr 11 78 5 2
2017 Apr 12 78 5 2
2017 Apr 13 75 5 2
2017 Apr 14 75 5 2
2017 Apr 15 78 5 2
2017 Apr 16 78 5 2
2017 Apr 17 85 20 5
2017 Apr 18 85 18 4
2017 Apr 19 85 10 3
2017 Apr 20 92 5 2
2017 Apr 21 92 5 2
2017 Apr 22 92 5 2
2017 Apr 23 92 55 6
2017 Apr 24 88 28 5
2017 Apr 25 88 20 5
2017 Apr 26 88 22 5
2017 Apr 27 88 28 5
2017 Apr 28 85 15 4
2017 Apr 29 85 10 3
(NOAA)