Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Apr 10 0321 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 April 2017
Solar activity ranged from very low to high during the period due to the many
multiple M-class flares from Region 2644 (N13, L=57, class/area Fkc/520 on 03 April). The first was an M1/Sf flare observed at 03/0105 UTC. The second M-flare was an M5/2n at 03/1429 UTC with an associated Type II (estimated shock speed 746 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed with both flares, however, neither was deemed to be the Earth-directed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 05-08 April, high levels on 04, 09 April, and very high levels on 03 April. The largest flux of the period was 53,552 pfu at 03/1330 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm conditions. The period began under the influence of a southern polar, negative polarity, coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Total field ranged between 2 and 6 nT until approximately 04/0000 UTC when it began to increase to a period maximum of 16 nT at 04/1019 UTC. The Bz component reached a period minimum value of -13 nT at 04/0932 UTC. Total field values were at near the nominal levels between 05/2200 and 07/2000 when Bt ranged from 2 to 7 nT. An
additional enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field occurred shortly after 07/2000 UTC when Bt increased to 10 nT in conjunction with a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) from a negative to a positve solar sector orientation. Solar wind speed began the period near 445 km/s and peaked to a maximum speed of 680 km/s at 08/1544 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 04, 09 April, and quiet to active levels on 03, 05-08
April.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 April - 06 May 2017
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity on 10-17 April and 05-06 May. Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) on 18-30 April and 01-04 May due to potential in Regions 2644 and 2645 (S10, L=18, class/area Ekc/700 on 03 April).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely from 10-12, 18-28 April and 01, 06 May with very high levels likely on 29-30 April due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 10-13, 17-19, 23-29 April, and 01-06 May with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 17, 23-27 April and G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely on 23 April due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Apr 10 0321 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-04-10
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Apr 10 72 12 4
2017 Apr 11 72 8 3
2017 Apr 12 72 8 3
2017 Apr 13 72 8 3
2017 Apr 14 72 5 2
2017 Apr 15 72 5 2
2017 Apr 16 75 5 2
2017 Apr 17 85 20 5
2017 Apr 18 88 18 4
2017 Apr 19 88 10 3
2017 Apr 20 95 5 2
2017 Apr 21 95 5 2
2017 Apr 22 92 5 2
2017 Apr 23 92 55 6
2017 Apr 24 90 28 5
2017 Apr 25 90 20 5
2017 Apr 26 90 22 5
2017 Apr 27 90 28 5
2017 Apr 28 90 15 4
2017 Apr 29 90 8 3
2017 Apr 30 80 5 2
2017 May 01 78 20 4
2017 May 02 78 10 3
2017 May 03 72 8 3
2017 May 04 72 10 3
2017 May 05 75 15 4
2017 May 06 75 15 4
(NOAA)