Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 May 15 0217 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 May 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class activity observed. On 13 May, an eruptive filament located near S60E10 was observed in H-alpha imagery starting to lift off at approximately 13/1300 UTC. An associated CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 13/1712 UTC. The majority of the ejecta appeared to have a southern trajectory; however, there was
indication of an Earth-directed component. ENLIL modeling suggested an arrival at Earth late on 16 May.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 08-09 May and 13 May while quiet to unsettled levels were observed 10-12 May and 14 May. Mostly nominal solar wind conditions were observed throughout the period with an SSBC slightly enhancing the solar wind environment on 09 May.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 May - 10 June 2017
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to very high levels. Normal levels are likely on 19 Apr. Moderate levels are likely on 20 Apr, 05-06 May, and 08-14 May. High levels are likely on 18 Apr, 21-23 Apr, 29 Apr-04 May, and 07 May. Very high levels are likely 24-28 Apr. All enhancements in flux values are anticipated from multiple,
recurrent, CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm conditions over the outlook period. Active conditions are likely on 15 May due to an anticipated CIR late in the day. 16 May will likely observe G1 (Minor) storm conditions due to a positive polarity CH HSS. G2 (Moderate) conditions on 17 May are likely as CH HSS influence is forecast to combine with the 13
May CME. G1 (Minor) storm conditions are again likely with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS on 18 May. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 19-20 May as wind speeds from the CH HSS peak. As the negative polarity CH HSS influence slowly wanes, G1 (Minor) storm levels on 21 May are likely to decrease to active on 22 May and finally to unsettled on 23 May. With the exception of a period of quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Jun, the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be at quiet levels.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 May 15 0217 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-05-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 May 15 72 12 4
2017 May 16 72 22 5
2017 May 17 74 32 6
2017 May 18 74 20 5
2017 May 19 74 48 6
2017 May 20 74 36 6
2017 May 21 74 20 5
2017 May 22 76 12 4
2017 May 23 76 8 3
2017 May 24 76 5 2
2017 May 25 76 5 2
2017 May 26 76 5 2
2017 May 27 76 5 2
2017 May 28 76 5 2
2017 May 29 76 5 2
2017 May 30 74 5 2
2017 May 31 74 5 2
2017 Jun 01 74 5 2
2017 Jun 02 74 5 2
2017 Jun 03 74 5 2
2017 Jun 04 72 5 2
2017 Jun 05 70 5 2
2017 Jun 06 70 5 2
2017 Jun 07 70 5 2
2017 Jun 08 70 5 2
2017 Jun 09 70 5 2
2017 Jun 10 70 8 3
(NOAA)