Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Nov 27 0259 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 November 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2698 (N13, L=108, class/area Cao/060 on 26 Nov), the only spotted region on the disk, was quiet throughout the period. A filament structure, located in
the NE quadrant, was observed erupting beginning at about 25/0445 UTC. A subsquent CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the E limb, first visible at 25/0712 UTC. Analysis, and follow-on WSA-Enlil model output, suggested the CME has a potential glancing blow at Earth early to midday on 29 Nov.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 20 Nov and again on 22-24 Nov. Moderate levels were observed on 21 Nov and again on 25-26 Nov. A maximum flux of 4,658 pfu was observed at 23/1555 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels. The period began with quiet conditions through most of 20 Nov. Late on 20 Nov, activity levels increased to
unsettled to active and persisted through 21 Nov into early 22 Nov. G1 geomagnetic storm levels were also observed early on 21 Nov. This increase in activity was due to effects from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of near 625 km/s at about 21/1500 UTC, total field hit a maximum of 14 nT early on 21 Nov, while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of-12 nT at 21/0400 UTC.
The remainder of the period witnessed a slow, gradual decrease in wind speeds to finish the summary period near 350 km/s The geomagnetic field responded with mostly quiet to unsettled levels through the remainder of the summary period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 November - 23 December 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30 Nov - 02 Dec, 06-10 Dec, 12-17 Dec and 19-21 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to
moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 27-30 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on 29 Nov due to
effects from the 25 Nov CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 04-08 Dec, 11-14 Dec and again on 17-21 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS effects. In addition, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 04-07 Dec and 18 Dec with G2 (Moderate) levels likely on 04-06 Dec, all due to CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Nov 27 0259 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-11-27
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Nov 27 76 15 4
2017 Nov 28 76 12 4
2017 Nov 29 76 20 5
2017 Nov 30 76 15 4
2017 Dec 01 76 8 3
2017 Dec 02 76 5 2
2017 Dec 03 72 5 2
2017 Dec 04 72 35 6
2017 Dec 05 70 40 6
2017 Dec 06 70 28 5
2017 Dec 07 70 20 5
2017 Dec 08 71 10 3
2017 Dec 09 72 5 2
2017 Dec 10 72 5 2
2017 Dec 11 73 12 4
2017 Dec 12 73 15 4
2017 Dec 13 74 12 4
2017 Dec 14 75 8 3
2017 Dec 15 75 5 2
2017 Dec 16 75 5 2
2017 Dec 17 74 8 3
2017 Dec 18 73 25 5
2017 Dec 19 73 10 3
2017 Dec 20 73 8 3
2017 Dec 21 74 8 3
2017 Dec 22 74 5 2
2017 Dec 23 76 5 2
(NOAA)