Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Feb 19 0416 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 February 2018
Solar activity was at very low levels on 13-18 Feb and low levels on 12 Feb. The strongest flare of the period was a C1 from Region 2699 (S07, L=165, class/area Dai/240 on 10 Feb) at 12/0135 UTC. The event produced an associated asymmetric halo signature first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0125 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested arrival of the CME at Earth on 15 Feb. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels 12-16 Feb. An increase to moderate levels on 17 Feb and to high levels on 18 Feb was observed in response influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 12-14 Feb. On 15 Feb, arrival of the 12 Feb CME produced only one isolated period of active during the day. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 15 nT around 16/0530 UTC while Bz remained mostly positive. Solar wind speeds were relatively slow, between 300-400 km/s through the event. Active levels were reached again on 17 and 18 Feb in response to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds continued to increase over the two days to a peak of about 600 km/s late on 18 Feb.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 February - 17 March 2018
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels from CH HSS influence are expected from 19-25 Feb. A transition back to normal levels is expected from 26 Feb to 17 Mar.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. Influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to produce isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming on 19 Feb. A decrease to quiet to active levels by 20 Feb and quiet to unsettled levels over 21-23 Feb is expected as influence from the CH HSS slowly wanes. Quiet to unsettled levels are again expected on 04 Mar and 15 March, with quiet to active levels expected on 14 Mar and 16-17 Mar, as multiple, recurrent CH HSSs are anticipated to become geoeffective. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to observe quiet conditions.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Feb 19 0416 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2018-02-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2018 Feb 19 70 14 5
2018 Feb 20 70 12 4
2018 Feb 21 70 8 3
2018 Feb 22 70 8 3
2018 Feb 23 70 8 3
2018 Feb 24 70 5 2
2018 Feb 25 70 5 2
2018 Feb 26 70 5 2
2018 Feb 27 72 5 2
2018 Feb 28 74 5 2
2018 Mar 01 76 5 2
2018 Mar 02 76 5 2
2018 Mar 03 76 5 2
2018 Mar 04 76 8 3
2018 Mar 05 76 5 2
2018 Mar 06 76 5 2
2018 Mar 07 76 5 2
2018 Mar 08 76 5 2
2018 Mar 09 76 5 2
2018 Mar 10 76 5 2
2018 Mar 11 76 5 2
2018 Mar 12 76 5 2
2018 Mar 13 74 5 2
2018 Mar 14 74 10 4
2018 Mar 15 72 8 3
2018 Mar 16 70 12 4
2018 Mar 17 70 16 4
(NOAA)