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Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Apr 09 0536 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 April 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the period with only a few low level B-class flare observed on 03 Apr from Region 2703 (S08, L=193, class/area Axx/010 on 31 Mar). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 02-04 Apr and at moderate levels on 05-08 Apr. The largest flux of the period was 2,150 pfu observed at 02/1915 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with unsettled periods observed on 05 Apr. Solar wind speed began the period slightly enhanced near 470 km/s with total field around 4-5 nT. Solar wind
speed declined to near 320 km/s by 04 April before increasing briefly to near 450 km/s by late on 05 Apr. Total field increased to a maximum of 9 nT at 05/2130 UTC. By 07 Apr, solar wind speed had
decreased to 330-380 km/s while the total field decreased to 5 nT or less.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 April - 05 May 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 12-30 Apr due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 10-16 Apr and again from 19-23 Apr with G1 (minor) storm levels likely on 10-11 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
Issued: 2018 Apr 09 0536 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-04-09
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Apr 09      67           8          3
2018 Apr 10      67          18          5
2018 Apr 11      67          18          5
2018 Apr 12      67          15          4
2018 Apr 13      67          12          4
2018 Apr 14      67          12          4
2018 Apr 15      67           8          3
2018 Apr 16      67           8          3
2018 Apr 17      67           5          2
2018 Apr 18      67           8          3
2018 Apr 19      67          15          4
2018 Apr 20      67          15          4
2018 Apr 21      67          15          4
2018 Apr 22      67          12          4
2018 Apr 23      68          10          3
2018 Apr 24      68           5          2
2018 Apr 25      68           5          2
2018 Apr 26      68           5          2
2018 Apr 27      68           5          2
2018 Apr 28      68           5          2
2018 Apr 29      68           5          2
2018 Apr 30      68           5          2
2018 May 01      68           5          2
2018 May 02      68           5          2
2018 May 03      68           5          2
2018 May 04      68           5          2
2018 May 05      68           5          2
(NOAA)