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Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Jun 18 0349 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 June 2018

Solar activity was very low with only low level B-class flare activity observed from Region 2713 (N06, L=285, class/area Bxo/060 on 13 Jun). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in satellite
imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 11-13 Jun and decreased to moderate levels on 14-17 Jun. The largest flux of the period was 1,840 pfu observed at
11/1945 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 280 km/s to 340 km/s through the majority of the period with total field at or below 6 nT. At approximately 17/1250 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing was observed from a negative to a positive orientation. A corresponding increase in total field to around 14 nT was observed at 17/2355 UTC along with an increase in solar wind speed to near  415 km/s. This indicated the arrival of a CIR preceding a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 June - 14 July 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares from 18 Jun-01 Jul with the return of old Region 2712 (N15, L=176). Very low levels are expected for the rest
of the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 28 Jun-10 Jul due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 18-19, 24-25, and 27-30 Jun with G1 (Minor) storm levels expected on 18 Jun and 28-29 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt :Issued: 2018 Jun 18 0349 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table # Issued 2018-06-18 # # UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest # Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index 2018 Jun 18 72 15 5 2018 Jun 19 74 8 3 2018 Jun 20 74 5 2 2018 Jun 21 74 5 2 2018 Jun 22 74 5 2 2018 Jun 23 74 5 2 2018 Jun 24 70 8 3 2018 Jun 25 70 8 3 2018 Jun 26 70 5 2 2018 Jun 27 70 15 4 2018 Jun 28 70 28 5 2018 Jun 29 70 18 5 2018 Jun 30 70 10 3 2018 Jul 01 68 5 2 2018 Jul 02 68 5 2 2018 Jul 03 68 5 2 2018 Jul 04 68 5 2 2018 Jul 05 68 5 2 2018 Jul 06 68 5 2 2018 Jul 07 72 5 2 2018 Jul 08 72 5 2 2018 Jul 09 72 5 2 2018 Jul 10 72 5 2 2018 Jul 11 72 5 2 2018 Jul 12 72 5 2 2018 Jul 13 72 5 2 2018 Jul 14 74 5 2 (NOAA)