Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Sep 17 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 September 2018
Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Region 2722 (S07, Lo=215, class/area Bxo/10 on 11 Sep) produced the strongest flare of the period, a B1 flare at 11/0759 UTC. The region decayed to plage in the following days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal background to high levels. High levels were reached on 12-16 Sep and moderate levels were reached on 10-11 Sep. All enhancements in electron flux are associated with the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. The onset of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS on 10 Sep increased geomagnetic activity to G1 levels. As wind speeds increased to around 550 km/s on 11 Sep, geomagnetic activity further increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) peaked at 15 nT late on 10 Sep. Bt then decreased to near 5-6 nT by mid-day on 11 Sep, which decreased the geomagnetic response to mostly quiet to active levels. One additional period of isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming was observed early on 14 Sep. Wind speeds persisted at elevated levels through 16 Sep, with a notable increase to a peak around 650 km/s observed early on 15 Sep. As wind speeds are decreased, quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Sep gave way to quiet levels on 16 Sep.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 September - 13 October 2018
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels on 06-08 Oct and at high levels for the remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in electron flux are expected due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 08 Oct; G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 07 Oct and 10 Oct; active conditions are expected on 17 Sep, 23 Sep, 02 Oct and 11 Oct; unsettled conditions are expected on 18 Sep, 24 Sep, 01 Oct, 09 Oct and 12 Oct. All levels of elevated geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 17 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2018-09-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2018 Sep 17 69 16 4
2018 Sep 18 69 8 3
2018 Sep 19 68 5 2
2018 Sep 20 68 5 2
2018 Sep 21 68 5 2
2018 Sep 22 68 5 2
2018 Sep 23 68 16 4
2018 Sep 24 68 12 3
2018 Sep 25 68 5 2
2018 Sep 26 68 5 2
2018 Sep 27 69 5 2
2018 Sep 28 69 5 2
2018 Sep 29 69 5 2
2018 Sep 30 69 5 2
2018 Oct 01 69 8 3
2018 Oct 02 70 10 4
2018 Oct 03 70 5 2
2018 Oct 04 70 5 2
2018 Oct 05 70 5 2
2018 Oct 06 70 5 2
2018 Oct 07 70 20 5
2018 Oct 08 70 30 6
2018 Oct 09 70 10 3
2018 Oct 10 69 18 5
2018 Oct 11 69 15 4
2018 Oct 12 69 8 3
2018 Oct 13 69 5 2
(NOAA)