Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Feb 04 0309 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 January - 03 February 2019
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2733 (N05, Lo=261, class/area Dso/090 on 27 Jan) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C5 at 30/0611 UTC. The region produced several other weaker B and C-class flares before rotating around the limb on 30 Jan. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to high levels. Flux levels decreased from high to normal to moderate levels on 31 Jan through most of 31 Feb due to geomagnetic activity associated with influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Moderate to high levels were observed for the remainder of the reporting period.
Geomagnetic field activity was ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Solar wind parameters became enhanced on 31 Jan due to the onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. The passage of the CIR produced sustained southward Bz, with a maximum of -16 nT observed at 31/2026 UTC.
The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions late on 31 Jan. The wind speeds increased to between 550-625 km/s after 01/0920 UTC and persisted until the end of 03 Feb. An accompanying decrease in Bt to between 4-7 nT resulted in a geomagnetic response of quiet to active conditions over 01-03 Feb. The remainder of the reporting period was quiet under nominal solar wind conditions.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 February - 02 March 2019
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 04-10 Feb and 21 Feb - 02 Mar; moderate levels are also expected on 11-13 Feb; mostly normal levels are expected on 14-20 Feb. All elevated levels of the electron flux are anticipated due to influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) conditions are expected on 20 Feb and 28 Feb - 01 Mar; active conditions are expected on 05 Feb, 19 Feb, 21 Feb and 27 Feb; unsettled conditions are expected on 04 Feb, 06 Feb, 22 Feb and 02 Mar.
All enhancements in geomagnetic field conditions are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet under nominal solar wind conditions.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Feb 04 0309 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2019-02-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2019 Feb 04 71 8 3
2019 Feb 05 71 12 4
2019 Feb 06 71 8 3
2019 Feb 07 71 5 2
2019 Feb 08 71 5 2
2019 Feb 09 71 5 2
2019 Feb 10 71 5 2
2019 Feb 11 71 5 2
2019 Feb 12 71 5 2
2019 Feb 13 72 5 2
2019 Feb 14 72 5 2
2019 Feb 15 72 5 2
2019 Feb 16 72 5 2
2019 Feb 17 72 5 2
2019 Feb 18 72 5 2
2019 Feb 19 72 12 4
2019 Feb 20 72 20 5
2019 Feb 21 72 12 4
2019 Feb 22 72 8 3
2019 Feb 23 72 5 2
2019 Feb 24 72 5 2
2019 Feb 25 72 5 2
2019 Feb 26 71 5 2
2019 Feb 27 71 12 4
2019 Feb 28 71 15 5
2019 Mar 01 71 15 5
2019 Mar 02 71 10 3
(NOAA)