Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Feb 11 0402 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 February 2019
Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no numbered sunspot regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 8,980 pfu observed on 04 Feb. High levels were observed on 04 Feb as a result of elevated solar wind speeds. Flux levels then ranged from moderate to high levels through 07 Feb under a mostly background solar wind regime, and remained at moderate to high levels through 10 Feb while under weak CH HSS influences.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Unsettled periods were observed late in the day on 04 Feb into the first period of 05 Feb as solar wind speeds decreased from around 500 km/s to around 400 km/s under weakening effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled conditions were again observed on 06 Feb as a result of minor solar wind enhancements.
A SSBC on 08 Feb, and marginally elevated solar wind speeds, resulted in active levels the last period of the day. Unsettled levels were observed early on 09 Feb with the onset of an additional negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 10 Feb with ongoing CH HSS influences.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 February - 09 March 2019
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly at very low levels throughout the forecast period. However, low levels are possible with the return of old Region 2733 (N05, Lo=261) on 12 Feb. This region was very active while transiting the visible disk, and produced a C5 flare at 30/0611 UTC near the west limb, in addition to several other weaker B and C-class flares.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels. High levels are expected on 11-12 Feb and 21 Feb-09 Mar. Moderate levels are expected 13-20 Feb. All elevated levels of electron flux are anticipated due to influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly unsetted 11-12 Feb as a result of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming can be expected with a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS on 19-21 Feb, and also with a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS on 27-2 Mar. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated with another weaker, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS on 07-09 Mar.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Feb 11 0402 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2019-02-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2019 Feb 11 70 5 2
2019 Feb 12 71 8 3
2019 Feb 13 72 8 3
2019 Feb 14 72 5 2
2019 Feb 15 72 5 2
2019 Feb 16 72 5 2
2019 Feb 17 72 5 2
2019 Feb 18 72 5 2
2019 Feb 19 72 12 4
2019 Feb 20 72 20 5
2019 Feb 21 72 12 4
2019 Feb 22 72 8 3
2019 Feb 23 72 5 2
2019 Feb 24 72 5 2
2019 Feb 25 72 5 2
2019 Feb 26 71 5 2
2019 Feb 27 71 12 4
2019 Feb 28 71 15 5
2019 Mar 01 71 15 5
2019 Mar 02 71 10 4
2019 Mar 03 71 5 2
2019 Mar 04 71 5 2
2019 Mar 05 71 8 3
2019 Mar 06 71 5 2
2019 Mar 07 71 8 3
2019 Mar 08 71 10 4
2019 Mar 09 71 8 3
(NOAA)