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| Autumn Equinox - 23 Septmebr 2019 (SImon's World Map) |
:Issued: 2019 Sep 23 0156 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 September 2019
Solar activity was at very low levels. No sunspots were observed on the visible disk. An anpproximately 20 degree filament erupted near S35W02 around 19/2200 UTC which produced a narrow, slow-moving CME signature near the Sun-Earth line. Modeling of the event suggested most of the ejecta was oriented south and eastward of Earth's orbit; however, Earth may still observe weak influence from the periphery of the CME.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 16-21 Sep and dropped to just normal levels through 22 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active conditions. Elevated wind speeds from a waning positive polarity CH HSS produced isolated active conditions on 16 Sep. Variable phi angle on 17 Sep suggested influence from a SSBC, cause a period of isolated active conditions. Quiet to unsettled levels on 18 Sep decreased to just quiet levels on 19-20 Sep. A brief period of southward Bz produced a single period of unsettled on 21 Sep. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 September - 19 October 2019
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 28 Sep - 12 Oct and 14 Oct; moderate levels are expected on 24-27 Sep, 13 Oct, and 15-18 Oct. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal levels. All enhancements in electron flux are in anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 levels are expected on 28 Sep followed by G1 (Minor) geomagnetic levels on 29 Sep. Active conditions are expected on 23-25 Sep, 30 Sep and 06 Oct. Unsettled conditions are expected on 26-27 Sep, 01-03 Oct, 10 Oct and 12-15 Oct. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are in anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 23 0156 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2019-09-23
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2019 Sep 23 68 12 4
2019 Sep 24 68 12 4
2019 Sep 25 68 12 4
2019 Sep 26 68 8 3
2019 Sep 27 68 8 3
2019 Sep 28 68 38 6
2019 Sep 29 68 28 5
2019 Sep 30 68 10 4
2019 Oct 01 68 8 3
2019 Oct 02 68 10 3
2019 Oct 03 68 8 3
2019 Oct 04 68 5 2
2019 Oct 05 68 5 2
2019 Oct 06 68 12 4
2019 Oct 07 68 5 2
2019 Oct 08 68 5 2
2019 Oct 09 68 5 2
2019 Oct 10 68 8 3
2019 Oct 11 68 5 2
2019 Oct 12 68 8 3
2019 Oct 13 68 10 3
2019 Oct 14 68 8 3
2019 Oct 15 68 8 3
2019 Oct 16 68 5 2
2019 Oct 17 68 5 2
2019 Oct 18 68 5 2
2019 Oct 19 68 5 2
(NOAA)