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Monday, October 14, 2019
Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Oct 14 0407 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 October 2019
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 08-13 Oct and at high levels on 07 Oct. The maximum flux of the period was 1,930 pfu observed at 07/1745 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period started off at nominal levels with solar wind speeds in the 350-405 km/s range. by 09 Oct, total field increased to 11 nT at 09/2135 UTC followed by an increase in solar wind speed to approximately 490 km/s as a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective positon. Solar wind speed remained enhanced through late on 11 Oct. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active conditions on 09-10 Oct and quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Oct.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 October - 09 November 2019
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 16 and 24 Oct and again on 04-09 Nov. High levels are expected on 14-15 Oct and on 25 Oct-03 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 14-15 Oct due to possible weak CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 21 Oct and 24-28 with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 24-25 Oct due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Oct 14 0407 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2019-10-14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2019 Oct 14 68 8 3
2019 Oct 15 68 8 3
2019 Oct 16 68 5 2
2019 Oct 17 68 5 2
2019 Oct 18 68 5 2
2019 Oct 19 68 5 2
2019 Oct 20 68 5 2
2019 Oct 21 68 15 4
2019 Oct 22 68 5 2
2019 Oct 23 68 5 2
2019 Oct 24 68 18 5
2019 Oct 25 68 25 5
2019 Oct 26 68 12 4
2019 Oct 27 68 10 3
2019 Oct 28 68 8 3
2019 Oct 29 68 5 2
2019 Oct 30 68 5 2
2019 Oct 31 68 5 2
2019 Nov 01 68 5 2
2019 Nov 02 68 5 2
2019 Nov 03 68 5 2
2019 Nov 04 68 5 2
2019 Nov 05 68 5 2
2019 Nov 06 68 5 2
2019 Nov 07 68 5 2
2019 Nov 08 68 5 2
2019 Nov 09 68 5 2
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