Pages

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2020 Sep 28 0301 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 September 2020

Solar activity was very low on 21-24 and 26-27 Sep. Solar activity reached low levels on 25 Sept when Region 2773 (N28, L=083, class/area=Bxo/10 on 23 Sep) produced a single C1 flare at 0038 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected this period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 24-27 Sept. The normal to moderate flux levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 27 Sept, with G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed on 24-26 Sept, and are due to the influences of a pair of positive polarity coronal hole high speed streams. Active conditions were observed on 23 Sept. Quiet and quiet to the unsettled conditions prevailed throughout the remainder of the week. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 September - 24 October 2020

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 28 Sept-10 Oct and 21-24 Oct. Normal and normal to moderate flux levels are expected to persist during the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is anticipated to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 28-29 Sept, with G1 at Minor storm levels likely on 30 Sept, and 21-23 Oct, due to CH HSS influence. The active conditions are likely on 01, 20, and 24 Oct. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 28 0301 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-09-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Sep 28      72          38          6
2020 Sep 29      72          38          6
2020 Sep 30      72          26          5
2020 Oct 01      72          15          4
2020 Oct 02      72          10          3
2020 Oct 03      72           5          2
2020 Oct 04      72           5          2
2020 Oct 05      70           5          2
2020 Oct 06      70           5          2
2020 Oct 07      70           5          2
2020 Oct 08      70           5          2
2020 Oct 09      70           5          2
2020 Oct 10      70           5          2
2020 Oct 11      70          10          3
2020 Oct 12      70           5          2
2020 Oct 13      70           5          2
2020 Oct 14      70           5          2
2020 Oct 15      70           5          2
2020 Oct 16      70           5          2
2020 Oct 17      70           5          2
2020 Oct 18      70           5          2
2020 Oct 19      72           5          2
2020 Oct 20      72          10          4
2020 Oct 21      72          18          5
2020 Oct 22      72          20          5
2020 Oct 23      72          24          5
2020 Oct 24      72          16          4
(NOAA)