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Monday, October 12, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Oct 12 0040 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 October 2020

Solar activity was very low. Regions 2774 (S25, L=308, class/area Axx/010 on 09 Oct) and 2775 (S24, L=272, class/area Cro/050 on 10 Oct) were absent of significant flare activity and unremarkable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 05, 07, and 10 Oct with a peak flux of 3,236 pfu on 07/1535 UTC. Moderate flux levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached isolated active levels on 05 and 06 Oct due to a slightly enhanced interplanetary magnetic field. Quiet conditions were observed on 07-11 Oct under a background solar
wind regime. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 October - 07 November 2020

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-31 Oct and 01, 03, 06 Nov. Normal to moderate levels are expected during the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 25 Oct, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 21-24 Oct, due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions are expected on 20, 26-28 Oct.

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 12 0041 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-10-12
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Oct 12      73           5          2
2020 Oct 13      73           5          2
2020 Oct 14      73           5          2
2020 Oct 15      72           5          2
2020 Oct 16      71           5          2
2020 Oct 17      71           5          2
2020 Oct 18      70           5          2
2020 Oct 19      70           5          2
2020 Oct 20      70          10          4
2020 Oct 21      70          18          5
2020 Oct 22      70          20          5
2020 Oct 23      70          24          5
2020 Oct 24      70          22          5
2020 Oct 25      70          30          6
2020 Oct 26      70          16          4
2020 Oct 27      70          14          4
2020 Oct 28      72          10          4
2020 Oct 29      72           8          3
2020 Oct 30      72           5          2
2020 Oct 31      73           5          2
2020 Nov 01      73           5          2
2020 Nov 02      73           5          2
2020 Nov 03      73           5          2
2020 Nov 04      73           5          2
2020 Nov 05      73           5          2
2020 Nov 06      73           5          2
2020 Nov 07      73           5          2
(NOAA)