Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Nov 09 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 November 2020
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Very low levels were observed on 02 Nov. Activity increased to low levels on 03-08 Nov with the emergence of Region 2781 (S23, L=255, class/area Eki/475 on 06 Nov). This fairly large, complex beta-gamma region produced numerous C-class events, the largest a C7/1f observed at 05/0022 UTC. Though some intermediate spot decay was evident by 08 Nov, the region continued to produce low-level activity. Region 2780 (N20, L=278, class/area Bxo/010 on 07 Nov) was quiet throughout the highlight period.
A slow-moving CME was detected off the WNW limb in LASCO C2 imagery, first visible at 08/1936 UTC. Initial model analysis indicated there was no Earth-directed component, but further analysis is ongoing. No other CMEs were detected during the highlight period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 05 and 06 Nov with a peak flux of 2,950 pfu observed at 05/1540 UTC. Moderate levels were observed on 02-04 Nov and 07-08 Nov.
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels with a few isolated unsettled intervals observed on 06 and 07 Nov due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS effects. The period began under a nominal solar wind environment with a predominately positive phi angle. By about 05/1400 UTC, a SSBC was observed as phi rotated from a positive to negative orientation. Solar wind parameters responded midday on 05 Nov through 07 Nov with an increase in the total field to 10 nT while the Bz component reached -8 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from about 300 km/s to about 500 km/s. By 08 Nov, wind parameters were at more nominal levels with a neutral IMF and wind speeds near 425 km/s.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 November - 05 December 2020
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for R1 (Minor) levels, on 09-15 Nov as Rgn 2781 remains on the visible disk. Very low to low levels are possible on 16-27 Nov due to the return of old Rgns 2778 (S22, L=084) and 2779 (S17, L=076). By 28 Nov through 05 Dec, activity levels are expected to increase to low, with a slight chance of R1 (Minor) activity, due to the return old Rgn 2781 (S23, L=255)
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 09-20 Nov and 29 Nov - 05 Dec. High levels are expected on 21-28 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 12-13 Nov and 03-04 Dec due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to isolated active conditions are expected on 17-25 Nov due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 09-11, 14-16 Nov, 26 Nov - 02 Dec, and 05 Dec.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 09 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2020-11-09
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2020 Nov 09 90 5 2
2020 Nov 10 88 5 2
2020 Nov 11 86 5 2
2020 Nov 12 84 8 3
2020 Nov 13 82 10 3
2020 Nov 14 82 5 2
2020 Nov 15 80 5 2
2020 Nov 16 78 5 2
2020 Nov 17 78 10 3
2020 Nov 18 78 5 2
2020 Nov 19 78 10 4
2020 Nov 20 78 15 5
2020 Nov 21 78 12 4
2020 Nov 22 78 15 5
2020 Nov 23 78 8 3
2020 Nov 24 78 10 4
2020 Nov 25 78 12 4
2020 Nov 26 80 5 2
2020 Nov 27 82 5 2
2020 Nov 28 86 5 2
2020 Nov 29 86 5 2
2020 Nov 30 86 5 2
2020 Dec 01 86 5 2
2020 Dec 02 86 5 2
2020 Dec 03 86 8 3
2020 Dec 04 86 8 3
2020 Dec 05 86 5 2
(NOAA)