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Tuesday, January 19, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Jan 18 0138 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 January 2021

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Regions 2796 (S21,L=089, class/area=Cro/020 on 15 Jan) and 2797 (S18, L=340, class/area=Hsx/090 on 17 Jan) produced only B-class activity throughout the week. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels for the highlight period. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 11-12 Jan due to possible weak CME activity combined with recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Unsettled conditions were observed on the latter half of the 12 Jan as activity waned. Quiet conditions were observed 13-17 Jan. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 January - 13 February 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels during the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 20-22 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS influence. the remainder of the period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 18-20 January due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Unsettled levels are expected on 21 Jan, 25-26 Jan, 01-02 Feb, and 07-08 Feb. Quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 18 0138 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-01-18
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Jan 18      77          12          3
2021 Jan 19      77          15          3
2021 Jan 20      77          12          3
2021 Jan 21      77           8          3
2021 Jan 22      76           5          2
2021 Jan 23      76           5          2
2021 Jan 24      76           5          2
2021 Jan 25      76           8          3
2021 Jan 26      76           8          3
2021 Jan 27      76           5          2
2021 Jan 28      76           5          2
2021 Jan 29      75           5          2
2021 Jan 30      75           5          2
2021 Jan 31      75           5          2
2021 Feb 01      75          10        4
2021 Feb 02      75          10        4
2021 Feb 03      75           5          2
2021 Feb 04      76           5          2
2021 Feb 05      76           5          2
2021 Feb 06      76           5          2
2021 Feb 07      76          10          3
2021 Feb 08      76          10          3
2021 Feb 09      76           5          2
2021 Feb 10      76           5          2
2021 Feb 11      77           5          2
2021 Feb 12      77           5          2
2021 Feb 13      77           5          2
(NOAA)