Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Feb 15 0206 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 February 2021
Solar activity was very low. A B5 flare was observed on 10/1206 UTC from a region of plage in the SE quadrant. The visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels over 08-14 Feb. A peak flux of 434 pfu was observed on 11/1615 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS was observed on 08 Feb. Quiet conditions followed nominal solar wind from 09-11 Feb. Unsettled conditions were observed on 12 Feb and active conditions on 13 Feb in response to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds briefly reached ~550 km/s early on 13 Feb and total magnetic field strength peaked at 15 nT while Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -14 nT at 13/0216 UTC. Quiet conditions returned on 14 Feb as total magnetic field strength and solar wind speeds waned.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 February - 13 March 2021
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are likely on 22-26 Feb and 02-04 Mar in response to CH HSS activity. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 01 Mar; active conditions are likely on 21-22 Feb, 02 Mar, 06 Mar and 12-13 Mar; unsettled conditions are likely on 15-16 Feb, 23 Feb, and 03 Mar. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be quiet.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 15 0206 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-02-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Feb 15 71 8 3
2021 Feb 16 71 8 3
2021 Feb 17 71 5 2
2021 Feb 18 71 5 2
2021 Feb 19 71 5 2
2021 Feb 20 71 5 2
2021 Feb 21 71 12 4
2021 Feb 22 72 12 4
2021 Feb 23 72 10 3
2021 Feb 24 76 5 2
2021 Feb 25 76 5 2
2021 Feb 26 74 5 2
2021 Feb 27 73 5 2
2021 Feb 28 74 5 2
2021 Mar 01 73 18 5
2021 Mar 02 74 15 4
2021 Mar 03 74 8 3
2021 Mar 04 73 5 2
2021 Mar 05 73 5 2
2021 Mar 06 73 15 4
2021 Mar 07 74 5 2
2021 Mar 08 70 5 2
2021 Mar 09 74 5 2
2021 Mar 10 76 5 2
2021 Mar 11 72 5 2
2021 Mar 12 71 18 4
2021 Mar 13 72 10 4
(NOAA)