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Monday, March 22, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2021 Mar 22 0107 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 - 21 March 2021

Solar activity was very low throughout the reporting period. Region 2808 (N19, L=035, class/area, Cao/30 on 12 Mar), Region 2810 (N18,  L=307, class/area, Hax/50 on 17 Mar), and Region 2811 (N21, L=248,  class/area, Bxo/10 on 21 Mar) all produced low level B-class flare activity. The largest event was a B3 flare from Region 2808 at  16/2026 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 15-19 and 21 Mar, with moderate levels observed on 20 Mar. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 20 Mar, with G1 (Minor) storm levels on 21 Mar due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS activity. Unsettled conditions were observed on 15 and 19 Mar. Quiet levels were observed for the
the remainder of the reporting period (16-18 Mar). 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 March - 17 April 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flare events, throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-26, 30-31 Mar, and 01-13, 17 Apr. Moderate levels are expected during the remainder of the outlook period (27-29 Mar, 14-16 Apr). 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 22, 28-30 Mar and 10, 16-17 Apr, with active conditions likely on 23-24 Mar, 02, 08-09 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 22 0107 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-03-22
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Mar 22      76          20          5
2021 Mar 23      76          18          4
2021 Mar 24      76          15          4
2021 Mar 25      77           8          3
2021 Mar 26      78           5          2
2021 Mar 27      78           5          2
2021 Mar 28      78          25          5
2021 Mar 29      78          20          5
2021 Mar 30      78          20          5
2021 Mar 31      78          10          3
2021 Apr 01      78           5          2
2021 Apr 02      79          15          4
2021 Apr 03      80           8          3
2021 Apr 04      81           5          2
2021 Apr 05      82           5          2
2021 Apr 06      82           5          2
2021 Apr 07      82           5          2
2021 Apr 08      81          15          4
2021 Apr 09      80          18          4
2021 Apr 10      80          20          5
2021 Apr 11      78           5          2
2021 Apr 12      76           5          2
2021 Apr 13      75           5          2
2021 Apr 14      75           5          2
2021 Apr 15      76           5          2
2021 Apr 16      77          25          5
2021 Apr 17      77          22          5
(NOAA)