Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 May 17 0116 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 May 2021
Solar activity was very low on 10-11, 13-16 May. Low levels were observed on 12 May due to an isolated C1/Sf flare from Region 2822 at 12/0935 UTC. Region 2822 (N18, L=335, class/area=Dao/190 on 12 May) was the most complex and active region this period, and was the source of an Earth-directed CME observed on 09 May, which arrived at Earth on 12 May. Coronal dimming in the vicinity of Region 2822 on 13 May was associated with another Earth-directed CME which is anticipated to arrive at Earth on 18 May. Region 2823 (S22, L=329, class/area=Cso/40 on 12 May) was quiet throughout the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm levels between 1200-1800 UTC on 12 May due to effects from the 09 May CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 15 May, and quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the week.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 May - 12 June 2021
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 19-24 May. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 17 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions to G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 18 May due to continued CH HSS influence and the effects of the 13 May CME. Active conditions are expected on 19 May due to diminishing CH HSS influence and CME effects. Predominately quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 17 0116 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-05-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 May 17 73 12 4
2021 May 18 77 18 5
2021 May 19 77 20 4
2021 May 20 75 12 3
2021 May 21 75 8 3
2021 May 22 75 5 2
2021 May 23 75 5 2
2021 May 24 75 5 2
2021 May 25 75 5 2
2021 May 26 75 5 2
2021 May 27 75 5 2
2021 May 28 75 5 2
2021 May 29 75 5 2
2021 May 30 75 5 2
2021 May 31 75 5 2
2021 Jun 01 77 5 2
2021 Jun 02 78 5 2
2021 Jun 03 78 5 2
2021 Jun 04 78 5 2
2021 Jun 05 78 5 2
2021 Jun 06 78 5 2
2021 Jun 07 78 5 2
2021 Jun 08 78 5 2
2021 Jun 09 78 5 2
2021 Jun 10 78 5 2
2021 Jun 11 78 8 3
2021 Jun 12 78 5 2
(NOAA)