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Monday, June 28, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2021 Jun 28 0115 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 June 2021

Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period.  Region 2833 (N23, L=208, class/area Hsx/160 on 21 Jun) produced a C1/Sf flare observed at 25/1403 UTC. A long-duration C3 x-ray event was observed from around the NE limb at 23/0707 UTC. This event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 724 km/s. Regions 2835 (S18, L=053, class/area Dso/230 on 27 Jun) and 2836 (S27, L=057, class/area Cro/020 on 27 Jun) produced a few B-class events during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph data. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 22 Jun and 26-27 Jun. High levels were observed on 21 Jun and 23-25 Jun. A maximum flux of 4,330 pfu was observed at 21/1435 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity was was at mostly quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods observed early on 22 Jun, late on 24 Jun, and early on 25 Jun. Solar wind parameters were mostly unremarkable during the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 June - 24 July 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels during the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 29-30 Jun and 01-06 Jul due to CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 30 Jun, 04 Jul, 09-10 Jul and 12-13 Jul due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 28 0115 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-06-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Jun 28      88           5          2
2021 Jun 29      90           5          2
2021 Jun 30      90          10         3
2021 Jul 01      90           5          2
2021 Jul 02      92           5          2
2021 Jul 03      92           5          2
2021 Jul 04      92          12         4
2021 Jul 05      92           5          2
2021 Jul 06      90           5          2
2021 Jul 07      85           5          2
2021 Jul 08      85           5          2
2021 Jul 09      85           8          3
2021 Jul 10      85           8          3
2021 Jul 11      85           5          2
2021 Jul 12      82          15         4
2021 Jul 13      82          12         4
2021 Jul 14      82           5          2
2021 Jul 15      80           5          2
2021 Jul 16      80           5          2
2021 Jul 17      80           5          2
2021 Jul 18      80           5          2
2021 Jul 19      82           5          2
2021 Jul 20      85           5          2
2021 Jul 21      85           5          2
2021 Jul 22      85           5          2
2021 Jul 23      85           5          2
2021 Jul 24      85           5          2
(NOAA)