Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Jul 05 0346 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 June - 04 July 2021
Solar activity ranged from very low to high levels. Region 2838 (N24W88, class/area Cro/030 on 03 Jul) rapidly emerged near the NW limb on 03 Jul. It produced the strongest event of the period, an impulsive X1/Sn flare (R3 - Strong) at 03/1429 UTC. Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep (357 km/s) along with low-level radio bursts across several different frequencies. Subsequent coronagraph imagery from SOHO LASCO/C2 showed several different westward CME signatures. The analysis determined all be oriented away from the Sun-Earth line. The region also produced an M2/Sf flare (R1 - Minor) at 03/0717 UTC, an M1/Sf flare (R1) at 03/1702 UTC, and a final M1/Sf flare (R1) at 04/0509 UTC as the region rotated behind the NW limb.
The largest region on the visible disk was Region 2835 (S18W16, class/area Ekc/770 on 01 Jul). The largest flare it produced during the reporting period was a C3 at 30/1815 UTC. The growth of Region 2835 peaked on 01 Jul and has been in gradual decay in the days since. The three remaining numbered active regions were relatively simple and stable or in decay.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity varied from quiet to active levels. Late on 30 Jun, a relatively gradual increase in solar wind parameters was observed which was likely from the transient influence of a CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun. Solar wind speeds increased from the mid 300 km/s to a peak of just over 500 km/s. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) increased to a brief peak of 13 nt early on 01 Jul. Bz reached a maximum southward flux of -9 nT. The following geomagnetic field response was mostly unsettled to active through the later part of 30 Jun. A decline in Bt early on 01 Jul resulted in quiet conditions despite wind speeds being elevated through 03 Jul. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 July - 31 July 2021
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low over the outlook period. There is potential for Region 2838 (N24, L=100), which produced an X1/Sn flare at 03/1429 UTC as it rotated around the NW limb, to increase flare probabilities after 16 Jul if it maintains around the far side and rotates back onto the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are likely on 12-14 Jul and 20-23 Jul in response to CH HSS activity. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active levels are likely on 10 Jul and 18-19 Jul; unsettled levels are likely on 05-06 Jul, 11 Jul, and 20 Jul. All elevated levels on geomagnetic activity are in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 05 0346 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-07-05
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Jul 05 90 10 3
2021 Jul 06 90 8 3
2021 Jul 07 85 5 2
2021 Jul 08 82 5 2
2021 Jul 09 82 5 2
2021 Jul 10 80 15 4
2021 Jul 11 80 12 3
2021 Jul 12 80 5 2
2021 Jul 13 80 5 2
2021 Jul 14 80 5 2
2021 Jul 15 80 5 2
2021 Jul 16 82 5 2
2021 Jul 17 82 5 2
2021 Jul 18 82 15 4
2021 Jul 19 84 12 4
2021 Jul 20 88 10 3
2021 Jul 21 88 5 2
2021 Jul 22 88 5 2
2021 Jul 23 90 5 2
2021 Jul 24 90 5 2
2021 Jul 25 90 5 2
2021 Jul 26 90 5 2
2021 Jul 27 90 5 2
2021 Jul 28 90 5 2
2021 Jul 29 88 5 2
2021 Jul 30 88 5 2
2021 Jul 31 88 5 2
(NOAA)