Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Jan 03 0417 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 December - 02 January 2022
Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 28 Dec due to an M1 flare at 0401 UTC and an M1/Sf at 1611 UTC from Region 2918 (N19, L=211, Class/area Dki/280 on 25 Dec). Region 2918 also produced another M1 flare at 0730 UTC on 01 Jan as it was rotating off the NW limb. The largest region on the disk was Region 2916 (S15, L=189, class/area Ekc/480 on 27 Dec) and was responsible for 2 M-class flares on 21 Dec, but only managed 1 C-class flare this reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit only reached high levels on 27 Dec with a peak flux of 3,210 pfu observed at 27/1325 UTC. For the rest of the period, the electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period began with a weak positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) that began after 27/0833 UTC. Total field reached a maximum of 15 nT at 27/1357 UTC followed by a maximum solar wind speed of 538 km/s at 28/1224 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 27 Dec followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 28 Dec. On 29 Dec, a late enhancement in total field reaching 21 nT at 30/0036 UTC was followed by a brief increase in solar wind speed to 515 km/s. The geomagnetic response was quiet to unsettled on 29-30 Dec. Solar wind conditions began to wane on 31 Dec with only quiet levels observed. On 01-02 Dec another positive polarity CH HSS was observed beginning at approximately 01/0115 UTC.
Total field increased to around 10 nT while the solar wind increased to near 530 km/s by 01/0900 UTC. Solar wind speed remained enhanced through the rest of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 01 Jan followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 02 Jan.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 January - 29 January 2022
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through 15 Jan. There is a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 16-29 Jan with the return of old Regions 2916 and 2918.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 19-23 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 03, 11-12, 15-18, 23-26, and 28-29 Jan and reach active levels on 16 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 03 0418 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-01-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Jan 03 88 8 3
2022 Jan 04 88 5 2
2022 Jan 05 85 5 2
2022 Jan 06 85 5 2
2022 Jan 07 85 5 2
2022 Jan 08 85 5 2
2022 Jan 09 85 5 2
2022 Jan 10 90 5 2
2022 Jan 11 95 10 3
2022 Jan 12 100 10 3
2022 Jan 13 115 5 2
2022 Jan 14 115 5 2
2022 Jan 15 115 8 3
2022 Jan 16 120 12 4
2022 Jan 17 120 8 3
2022 Jan 18 120 8 3
2022 Jan 19 120 5 2
2022 Jan 20 120 5 2
2022 Jan 21 120 5 2
2022 Jan 22 120 5 2
2022 Jan 23 120 10 3
2022 Jan 24 120 8 3
2022 Jan 25 110 8 3
2022 Jan 26 100 8 3
2022 Jan 27 100 5 2
2022 Jan 28 95 10 3
2022 Jan 29 90 8 3
(NOAA)