Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Feb 07 0321 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 January - 06 February 2022
Solar activity was at low levels with many C-class flares observed. The largest flare of the period was a C9 at 01/2236 UTC from Region 2939 (S16, L=32, class/area Dho/300 on 02 Feb). Region 2939 also produced a long-duration C3/Sf flare at 06/1341 UTC. Filament
structure suspended above the region, approximately 10 degrees long and centered near S20W05 at the time of the event, lifted-off during the flare. The event was subsequently detected in LASCO C2 beginning at around 06/1436 UTC, and is predicted to hit Earth. Initial analysis determined 10 Feb to be the likely timing to arrive at Earth. Regions 2936 (N17, L=116, class/area Ehi/750 on 31 Jan) 2940 (N17, L=35, class/area Dao/320 no 02 Feb), and 2941 (N24, L=340, class/area Eho/300 on 05 Feb) also contributed several C-class flares each.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 31 Jan, 01 Feb due to influences from a CH HSS. High levels were also observed on 04-06 Feb due to influences from a CME. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 02-03 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 03-04 Feb due to impacts from a CME that left the Sun on 29 Jan. Active levels were reached late on 01 Feb and 02 Feb due to arrival of the aforementioned CME. Active levels were also reached early on 06 Feb due to influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 31 Jan and 05 Feb.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 February - 05 March 2022
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class flares on 07-11 Feb due to the flare potential of Regions 2940 and 2941. Very low to low levels are expected on 12 Feb
- 05 Mar.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 07-20 Feb, and 27 Feb - 05 Mar due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 21- 26 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) storm levels on 10-11 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of an assymetric full halo CME that left the Sun on 06 Feb. G1 levels are also expected on 13-14 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Active
levels are expected on 18, 25 Feb, and 03, 05 Mar due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the remaining days in the highlight period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 07 0321 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-02-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Feb 07 122 10 3
2022 Feb 08 120 5 2
2022 Feb 09 120 5 2
2022 Feb 10 120 20 5
2022 Feb 11 110 25 5
2022 Feb 12 110 12 3
2022 Feb 13 115 25 5
2022 Feb 14 115 20 5
2022 Feb 15 115 5 2
2022 Feb 16 115 5 2
2022 Feb 17 115 10 3
2022 Feb 18 115 12 4
2022 Feb 19 115 8 3
2022 Feb 20 118 5 2
2022 Feb 21 120 10 3
2022 Feb 22 120 8 3
2022 Feb 23 120 5 2
2022 Feb 24 125 8 3
2022 Feb 25 125 12 4
2022 Feb 26 120 8 3
2022 Feb 27 120 8 3
2022 Feb 28 120 5 2
2022 Mar 01 120 5 2
2022 Mar 02 120 5 2
2022 Mar 03 120 12 4
2022 Mar 04 120 10 3
2022 Mar 05 115 15 4
(NOAA)