Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Feb 21 0202 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 February 2022
Solar activity ranged from very low to to moderate. Region 2941 (N24, L=337, class/area=Eki/370 on 10 Feb) produced both M-class (R1-Minor) events during the period, an M1/Sf at 14/1731 UTC and an M1/Sf at 15/1815 UTC. The region was the most complex on the visible disk during the past week and all significant activity was produced as it was rotating around the NW limb. Following its exit from the visible disk, a Type II radio sweep was observed from CME produced from the vicinity of the region on 18 Feb. The remaining regions on the visible disk produced only isolated low-level C-class activity and were magnetically simple.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. A very weak enhancement in the 10 MeV proton flux (well below the S1 threshold) was observed on 16 Feb and an additional one on 18 Feb. The weak enhancements were likely associated with activity on the far-side of the Sun.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to high levels. High levels were observed on 14-18 Feb. Elevated geomagnetic activity on 19-20 Feb decreased the flux to normal-moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. During the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS, an isolated period of G1 was observed during the 20/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 12 nT while the Bz component rotated as far south as -11 nT at 20/0115 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to between 500-550 km/s and remained elevated through the end of the reporting period. Outside of that activity, unsettled conditions were only observed on 16 Feb
and early on 19 Feb. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 February - 19 March 2022
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for R1 (Minor) events on 21-23 Feb, from 21 Feb to 06 Mar due to flare potential from regions of flux near and just beyond the E limb. Very low levels are expected from 07 Mar-19 Mar.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 21-25 Feb, 04-10 Mar, and 12-17 Mar. Elevated levels of electron flux are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 03-04 Mar, 11 Mar and 19 Mar; active conditions are likely on 21 Feb and 12 Mar; unsettled conditions are likely over 22-23 Feb, 05-06 Mar, 13 Mar and 18 Mar. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be quiet.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 21 0202 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-02-21
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Feb 21 96 12 4
2022 Feb 22 102 10 3
2022 Feb 23 102 8 3
2022 Feb 24 105 5 2
2022 Feb 25 103 5 2
2022 Feb 26 103 5 2
2022 Feb 27 103 5 2
2022 Feb 28 105 5 2
2022 Mar 01 103 5 2
2022 Mar 02 103 5 2
2022 Mar 03 105 18 5
2022 Mar 04 103 15 5
2022 Mar 05 103 10 3
2022 Mar 06 100 8 3
2022 Mar 07 98 5 2
2022 Mar 08 98 5 2
2022 Mar 09 95 5 2
2022 Mar 10 95 5 2
2022 Mar 11 95 15 5
2022 Mar 12 95 12 4
2022 Mar 13 93 8 3
2022 Mar 14 95 5 2
2022 Mar 15 95 8 3
2022 Mar 16 93 5 2
2022 Mar 17 95 5 2
2022 Mar 18 95 10 3
2022 Mar 19 95 15 5
(NOAA)