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Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 May 02 0215 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 April - 01 May 2022
Solar activity reached high levels during the period with an X1.1 flare at 30/1347 UTC from Region 2994 (N14, L=105, class/area Eko/670 on 25 Apr). This event was accompanied by a Type II radio emission (est 1071 km/s shock speed). This region produced the bulk of the activity during the period, including several M-class flares. Regions 2993 (N19, L=111, class/area Cao/200 on 25 Apr), 2995 (N13, L-75, class/area Hsx/210 on 25 Apr), and 2996 (N24, L=63, class/area Cro/30 on 25 Apr) each produced an M-class flare. There were numerous CMEs associated with the flare activity during the period but the regions were all either on or beyond the East or West limbs and not Earth-directed.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became elevated with a peak flux 4.2 pfu at 29/2145 UTC, likely associated with an M1.2 flare from Region 2996.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 29 Apr and 1 May due to influences from a combination of a CH HSS and transient passage.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1(Minor) storm levels on 27 Apr due to influences from the transient passage. G1 levels were also observed on 30 Apr due to a combination of CH HSS influences and a possible transient passage. Active levels were observed on 28-29 Apr due to CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 25-26 Apr and 1 May.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 May - 28 May 2022
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for moderate levels on 11-25 May due to Regions 2993 and 2994 rotating back on the disk. Very low to low levels are expected on 2-10 May and 26-28 May.
There is a slight chance for a proton event at geosynchronous orbit on 11-25 May due to the potential from Regions 2993 and 2994 rotating back onto the visible disk.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 2-4 May, 14-17 May, and 26-28 May due to influences from recurrent CH HSS activity. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 24 May due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 2 May, 20 May, and 25-27 May also due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 02 0215 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-05-02
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 May 02 105 15 4
2022 May 03 105 8 3
2022 May 04 105 5 2
2022 May 05 102 5 2
2022 May 06 100 5 2
2022 May 07 97 5 2
2022 May 08 97 5 2
2022 May 09 97 5 2
2022 May 10 99 5 2
2022 May 11 102 5 2
2022 May 12 108 5 2
2022 May 13 115 8 3
2022 May 14 120 10 3
2022 May 15 125 8 3
2022 May 16 125 5 2
2022 May 17 125 5 2
2022 May 18 125 5 2
2022 May 19 127 5 2
2022 May 20 127 12 4
2022 May 21 130 8 3
2022 May 22 128 5 2
2022 May 23 125 5 2
2022 May 24 122 18 5
2022 May 25 118 15 4
2022 May 26 118 15 4
2022 May 27 114 15 4
2022 May 28 110 8 3
(NOAA)