Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Aug 15 0229 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Solar activity was very low with B-class flare activity on 08-10 Aug. Solar activity increased to low levels with C-class flare activity observed on 11-14 Aug. Regions 3076 (N15, L=61, class/area=Dao/170 on 13 Aug) and 3079 (S11, L=77, class/area=Cai/130 on 14 Aug) were responsible for the majority of C-class flare activity throughout the period. At 14/1235 UTC, a long-duration C2 flare and filament eruption were observed from Region 3076. Associated Type-II radio emissions estimated a shock velocity of 629 km/s. The associated CME was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14/1248 UTC and is expected to impact Earth on 17 Aug.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit persisted at high levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 08 Aug, and active levels on 09 and 11 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions prevailed on 10 and 12-14 Aug.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 August - 10 September 2022
Solar activity is expected to be predominately low with C-class flare activity and a chance for isolated M-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15, 18-24 Aug, and 04-10 Sep. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17-18 Aug due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of the 14 Aug CME. Active conditions are predicted on 19-20 Aug due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 27 Aug due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagentic storms are possible on 03-04 Aug, with G1 storms possible on 05 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS
effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 15 0229 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-08-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Aug 15 124 5 2
2022 Aug 16 124 5 2
2022 Aug 17 122 20 5
2022 Aug 18 118 25 5
2022 Aug 19 112 18 4
2022 Aug 20 108 12 4
2022 Aug 21 102 8 3
2022 Aug 22 100 5 2
2022 Aug 23 100 5 2
2022 Aug 24 94 5 2
2022 Aug 25 94 5 2
2022 Aug 26 94 5 2
2022 Aug 27 94 12 4
2022 Aug 28 96 8 3
2022 Aug 29 98 8 3
2022 Aug 30 100 8 3
2022 Aug 31 108 5 2
2022 Sep 01 114 5 2
2022 Sep 02 116 5 2
2022 Sep 03 116 24 6
2022 Sep 04 112 28 6
2022 Sep 05 108 18 5
2022 Sep 06 108 10 3
2022 Sep 07 115 14 4
2022 Sep 08 120 8 3
2022 Sep 09 124 10 3
2022 Sep 10 126 8 3
(NOAA)