Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Aug 22 0656 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 - 21 August 2022
Solar activity was reached moderate levels on 15 Aug and 17-19 Aug with High levels observed on 16 Aug mostly due to M-class flaring from Region 3078 (S23, L=030, class/area Dao/270 on 16 Aug). This region was responsible for 57 C-class flares and 10 M-class flares.
The largest was an M5 at 16/0758 UTC. Multiple CMEs were observed during the period with Earth-directed components. These included a partial-halo CME at 14/1325 UTC off the W limb associated with a LDE C2 flare at 14/1235 UTC from Region 3076 (N16,l=061, class/area Dao/170 on 12 Aug), a CME at 15/0516 UTC off the SW limb associated with a filament eruption centered near S21W43 at 15/0400 UTC, a CME at 17/1430 UTC off the SW limb associated with an M2 flare at 17/1345 UTC from Region 3078, a CME at 18/2256 UTC off the SW limb associated with C4 flare from Region 3078, and a CME at 19/0500 UTC off the SW limb associated with an M1/Sn flare at 19/0444 UTC from Region 3078. Analysis of these CMEs appeared to be combined arrivals early on 18 Aug, late on 19 Aug, and early on 22 Aug.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 18 Aug and reached high levels on 15-17 and 19-21 Aug. The peak flux was 7,580 pfu observed at 15/1520 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels. The period began under the waning effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from near 500 km/s to 360 km/s by 16/0355 UTC. At 16/1155 UTC a solar sector boundary crossing was observed changing polarity from positive to negative. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 15-16 Aug. On 17 Aug at 0214 UTC, a weak shock was observed at the DSCVR spacecraft. The total field increased from 8 nT to 18 nT while solar wind speed increased from 385 km/s to 434 km/s. A subsequent geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at 17/0303 UTC (23 nT at HAD magnetometer). Total field remained in the 10-18 nT range through 18/1510 UTC. Solar wind speed continued to increase to near 570-600 km/s. This was likely the arrival of the 14 Aug CME followed by the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Another shock was observed at 19/1702 UTC with a total field increase from 5 nT to 12 nT as the solar wind speed increased from 540 km/s to 630 km/s. A sudden impulse was observed at 20/1812 UTC (8 nT at SIT magnetometer). Solar wind peaked at around 676 km/s at 19/2048 and remained in the 470 km/s to 600 km/s range through the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 17 Aug, quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 18-19 Aug, and quiet to active levels on 20-21 Aug.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 August - 17 September 2022
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on 22 Aug - 02 Sep and 17 Sep. An increased chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) levels is likely on 03-16 Sep with the return of Region 3078.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-26 Aug, 28 Aug - 01 Sep, 04-12 Sep, and again on 14-17 Sep due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 22-24 Aug, 27-30 Aug, 03-10 Sep, 13-17 Sep with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely on 22 Aug, 03-05 Sep, and G2 (Moderate) levels likely on 03-04 Sep due to recurrent CH HSSs. There is a possibility of a glancing blow from the 18-19 Aug CMEs arriving on 22 Aug.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 22 0656 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-08-22
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Aug 22 98 25 5
2022 Aug 23 96 15 4
2022 Aug 24 96 8 3
2022 Aug 25 96 5 2
2022 Aug 26 94 5 2
2022 Aug 27 94 12 4
2022 Aug 28 94 8 3
2022 Aug 29 92 8 3
2022 Aug 30 98 8 3
2022 Aug 31 100 5 2
2022 Sep 01 108 5 2
2022 Sep 02 114 5 2
2022 Sep 03 116 30 6
2022 Sep 04 116 38 6
2022 Sep 05 112 20 5
2022 Sep 06 108 15 4
2022 Sep 07 108 18 4
2022 Sep 08 115 10 3
2022 Sep 09 120 12 4
2022 Sep 10 124 8 3
2022 Sep 11 130 5 2
2022 Sep 12 128 5 2
2022 Sep 13 120 12 4
2022 Sep 14 118 15 4
2022 Sep 15 105 10 3
2022 Sep 16 102 8 3
2022 Sep 17 98 8 3
(NOAA)