Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Sep 19 0622 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 September 2022
Solar activity reached high levels this week, with six M-class flares observed during the period. Region 3098 (N18, L=053, class/area Ehc/860 on 14 Sep) produced the largest event, an M7.9 flare at 16/0949 UTC. This was followed at 16/1559 UTC by an M6.2/Sn flare from the same region. The remaining M flares, all associated with Region 3098, ranged from M1.1 to M2.6. Of the 11 regions numbered,
Region 3098 was the largest, most magnetically complex, and most productive. It was responsible for 39 C-class flares in addition to the M-flares described above. Throughout the week there were several CMEs but none were Earth-directed.
No proton events meeting alert criteria were observed at geosynchronous orbit, although the 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated above background levels, most likely in response to an event on the far side of the sun.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was elevated at the beginning of the week but subsequently fell below the 1000 pfu threshold after the arrival of a transient feature on the 14th described below. It remained at normal-moderate levels for the remainder of the week.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The active conditions were observed on the synoptic periods straddling 14-15 Sept and associated with influences from an unattributed transient feature. The disturbed conditions were preceded by a 30 nT sudden impulse observed at 2315 UTC (Boulder Magnetometer) on September 14th.
An extended quiet period followed until 18 September when conditions rose to unsettled levels in response to coronal hole high-speed stream influences. Solar wind speed in this coronal hole reached the mid 500 km/s range.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 September - 15 October 2022
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 19 Sep - 02 Oct as old Region 3089 (S22, L=194) returns. This region was previously responsible for 5 M-class events and continues to be active based on the imagery of the SE limb. Region 3098 is expected to return around 29 September, bringing the potential for a continued chance of M-class flare activity through the end of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 20-23 September and 01-11 October in response to CH HSS influences.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor (G1) storm levels on the 22-23 Sep with the arrival of a HSS associated with a positive polarity coronal hole. Another positive polarity coronal hole and HSS are expected to bring minor (G1) to moderate (G2) storm conditions on 30 Sep - 03 Oct.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 19 0622 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-09-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Sep 19 138 10 3
2022 Sep 20 135 5 2
2022 Sep 21 135 5 2
2022 Sep 22 133 20 5
2022 Sep 23 128 18 5
2022 Sep 24 126 12 4
2022 Sep 25 130 8 3
2022 Sep 26 125 8 3
2022 Sep 27 120 8 3
2022 Sep 28 120 8 3
2022 Sep 29 122 8 3
2022 Sep 30 122 22 5
2022 Oct 01 122 50 6
2022 Oct 02 122 30 5
2022 Oct 03 120 20 5
2022 Oct 04 122 12 4
2022 Oct 05 122 15 4
2022 Oct 06 122 12 4
2022 Oct 07 122 10 3
2022 Oct 08 125 8 3
2022 Oct 09 122 8 3
2022 Oct 10 120 5 2
2022 Oct 11 118 8 3
2022 Oct 12 118 5 2
2022 Oct 13 116 5 2
2022 Oct 14 116 5 2
2022 Oct 15 116 12 4
(NOAA)