Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Sep 05 0159 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 04 September 2022
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels during the period. High activity levels were observed on 29 Aug when Region 3088 (S27, L=300, class/area Dkc/650 on 27 Aug) produced an M8.6 x-ray event at 29/1108 UTC. During the 29th, the region produced three additional M-class events including an M2.5 at 29/1456 UTC with an associated Type II (286 km/s), a Type IV Sweep and a 1000 sfu Tenflare. Moderate levels were observed on 30 Aug with a pair of small M-class events observed from Rgn 3088, including a long duration (LDE) M2.1 at 30/1929 UTC. A weak Type II (332 km/s) Sweep was observed with a C5.4 event at 30/1720 UTC.
Low activity levels were observed on 31 Aug - 04 Sep with numerous (43) C-class flares observed from Rgn 3089 (S23, L=195, class/area Ekc/520 on 04 Sep). Additional C-class activity was observed from Rgns 3092 (S09, L=095, class/area Cao/170 on 02 Sep), 3093 (S27, L=105, class/area Cro/030 on 04 Sep) and 3094 (N20, L=069, class/area Cao/100 on 02 Sep). Some weak CME activity was observed off the SW limb on 02 Sep that was analyzed as having a potential, weak Earth-directed component for 06 Sep.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. A weak enhancement to 0.88 pfu was observed at 30/0210 UTC associated with W limb M-class activity from Rgn 3088.
The GOES-16 greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 29 Aug - 03 Sep and reached high levels on 04 Sep with a peak flux of 6,689 pfu observed at 04/1625 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 29 Aug - 02 Sep due to negative polarity CH HSS influence coupled with SW limb CME effects on 29-30 Aug. By 03 Sep, and through 04 Sep, a large equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Steady Minor to Major geomagnetic storm activity was observed through both days. Total field values of 12 nT coupled with steady -12 nT Bz values were observed on the 3rd and 4th. Wind speeds reached maximum speeds of near 685 km/s through most of 04 Sep.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 September - 01 October 2022
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through 10 Sep. From 11 - 25 Sep, a chance for R1-R2, (Minor-Moderate) flare activity exists as previously active regions return to the visible disk. A return to very low levels is expected from 26 Sep - 01 Oct.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit from 05 - 10 Sep and 26 Sep - 01 Oct. There is a slight chance for a proton event from 11 Sep - 01 Oct.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 05 - 11 Sep, 15 - 19 Sep, 25 - 28Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 05 0159 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-09-05
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Sep 05 126 34 6
2022 Sep 06 122 18 4
2022 Sep 07 120 12 3
2022 Sep 08 122 10 3
2022 Sep 09 120 8 3
2022 Sep 10 120 8 3
2022 Sep 11 125 8 3
2022 Sep 12 125 5 2
2022 Sep 13 125 12 4
2022 Sep 14 125 15 4
2022 Sep 15 126 10 3
2022 Sep 16 125 8 3
2022 Sep 17 125 8 3
2022 Sep 18 126 5 2
2022 Sep 19 120 5 2
2022 Sep 20 125 5 2
2022 Sep 21 125 5 2
2022 Sep 22 115 5 2
2022 Sep 23 115 12 3
2022 Sep 24 115 10 3
2022 Sep 25 120 14 3
2022 Sep 26 120 14 3
2022 Sep 27 120 14 3
2022 Sep 28 120 8 3
2022 Sep 29 118 8 3
2022 Sep 30 118 22 5
2022 Oct 01 115 50 6
(NOAA)