Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Sep 26 0155 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 September 2022
Solar activity reached moderate levels this week with three M-class flares observed during the period. Region 3102 (S25, L=298, class/area Eki/320 on 18 Sep) produced an M1.0/1n flare at 20/1122 UTC. Region 3107 (S25, L=113, class/area Fai/240 on 24 Sep) produced an M1.0 at 21/0702 UTC. This was followed by the largest event of the period, an M1.7/Sf at 23/1810 UTC from Region 3110 (N16, L=158, class/area Dhi/320 on 25 Sep). Associated with this event were Type II (est. 2453 km/s S.V.) and Type IV signatures.
During the period, a total of 62 C-class and 3 M-class flares were recorded. In addition to Regions 3102, 3107 and 3110, C-class activity was also observed from Regions 3105 (S17, L=210, class/area Dki/490 on 22 Sep) and 3109 (N10, L=257, class/area Dro/040 on 23 Sep). Numerous CME signatures, off of both limbs, were observed in coronagraph imagery throughout the week, but none were determined to have Earth-directed components.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, although the 10 Mev proton flux was slightly elevated above background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 19-24 Sep and high levels on 25 Sep with a peak flux of 2,130 pfu observed at 25/1555 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity mostly ranged from quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period early on 24 September. Quiet to unsettled periods were observed on 19-20 September under weak, diminishing, negative polarity coronal hole high stream influence. Quiet levels were observed on 21 and 22 September, with the exception of an isolated unsettled period late on 22 September. Unsettled to isolated active conditions persisted on 24 and 25 September under weak, positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream influence.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 September - 22 October 2022
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor to Moderate) flare activity on 26 September to 04 October and from 08-22 October due to current active regions on the visible disk and returning, active regions.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 26-28 September, 03-12 October, and 22 October in response to CH HSS influences.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 27-28 September, 01-06 October, 16-17 October, with active levels possible on 01-05 October and 20-21 October. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are possible on 01-04 October as well. This enhanced activity is due to CH HSS influences.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 26 0155 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-09-26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Sep 26 140 8 3
2022 Sep 27 142 10 3
2022 Sep 28 145 10 3
2022 Sep 29 140 8 3
2022 Sep 30 135 8 3
2022 Oct 01 130 25 5
2022 Oct 02 125 50 6
2022 Oct 03 128 30 5
2022 Oct 04 130 20 5
2022 Oct 05 132 12 4
2022 Oct 06 132 10 3
2022 Oct 07 132 8 3
2022 Oct 08 135 8 3
2022 Oct 09 130 8 3
2022 Oct 10 128 8 3
2022 Oct 11 132 8 3
2022 Oct 12 136 8 3
2022 Oct 13 136 8 3
2022 Oct 14 138 8 3
2022 Oct 15 140 10 3
2022 Oct 16 138 10 3
2022 Oct 17 135 8 3
2022 Oct 18 132 8 3
2022 Oct 19 130 8 3
2022 Oct 20 128 12 4
2022 Oct 21 125 12 4
2022 Oct 22 130 8 3
(NOAA)